Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Texas, May 4 to 5, 2002

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
550 PM CDT SAT MAY 4 2002

SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL BUT OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT.

.SJT...TORNADO WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

BROWN-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-COKE-CONCHO-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-
JONES-MCCULLOCH-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SHACKELFORD-
STERLING-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN

23/HUBER

****  235 PM CDT SAT MAY 4 2002 DISCUSSION FOLLOWS  ****

RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT...THEN ITS BACK TO SAME OL
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WEATHER PATTERN

THE DRYLINE PUSHED WEST OF OUR AREA QUICKLY THIS MORNING...WARMFRONT
IS POISED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS W
CENTRAL TX DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT...ALONG WITH THE FRONT A GOOD
LOW LEVEL JET AND A PULSE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS...WILL
PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE PRIME AREA FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT.
MAINLY BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THOSE STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND EVEN TORNADOES.

THREAT OF STORMS ENDS PRIMARILY WITH THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE WARMFRONT...SO BY SUNRISE THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
BIG COUNTRY.  WILL TAKE OUT MENTION OF RAIN IN ALL BUT NORTHERN
COUNTIES ON SUNDAY.  WITH THE DRYLINE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WELL TO OUR
WEST THROUGH TUESDAY...CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WILL STAY TO
OUR WEST...AND WILL TAKE OUT MENTION OF RAIN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER COUPLE OF WEAK BITS OF ENERGY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST...SO A FEW STORMS MAY BE NEARBY.

BY WEDNESDAY THE DRYLINE COMES BACK INTO PLAY...AND WE ALSO FLIRT
WITH A WEAK COLDFRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

BUT AFTER MORE THAN A MONTH WITHOUT SUBSTANTIAL RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA...TONIGHTS THE BEST SHOT WEVE HAD IN A WHILE.

ABI 065/088/067/090 62--
SJT 066/090/068/092 51--
JCT 068/091/070/093 51--

.SJT...NONE.

25

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-042330-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
230 PM CDT SAT MAY 4 2002

...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAVE INCREASED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CWA BEGINS TO
DRIFT NORTHWARD. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON... THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO SEE STORMS LATER TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND THE HEARTLAND WEST
THROUGH THE CONCHO VALLEY.

AS LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT
...ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF REACHING
SEVERE LEVELS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREATS. HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR TO
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ACROSS TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND NEW
MEXICO.

15

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-042330-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
230 PM CDT SAT MAY 4 2002

...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAVE INCREASED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CWA BEGINS TO
DRIFT NORTHWARD. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON... THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO SEE STORMS LATER TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND THE HEARTLAND WEST
THROUGH THE CONCHO VALLEY.

AS LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT
...ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF REACHING
SEVERE LEVELS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREATS. HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR TO
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ACROSS TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND NEW
MEXICO.

15