Hail in Kansas, May 4, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
325 PM CDT SAT MAY 4 2002

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ALL PERIODS.

SPLIT FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH ENTRENCHED FROM
BAJA TO OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN BRANCH ACROSS US/CAN BORDER INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROF WITH NORTHERN BRANCH OVER DAKOTAS
THIS MORNING AND HAD PUSHED COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
MOISTURE AT 850MB RATHER SPARSE BUT AREA SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOIST
LAYER JUST BELOW. FRONT BEGINNING TO STALL ALONG A MEADE TO LARNED
LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH 3HR PRESSURE CHANGE MAP SHOWING ANY RISES
NORTH OF KANSAS.

FRONT SHOULD WORK BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT. MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY FOR A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES. BETTER MOISTURE SURGES NORTH FROM THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH 850MB THETA E ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARENT TERRIBLY
MOIST AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OTHER LOW LEVEL FORCING DONT SEEM
QUITE ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION. WEAK WAVE EXITING BAJA THIS
AFTERNOON PER WATER VAPOR AND MODEL DATA MAY ENTER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND GIVE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW STORMS. AFTER
COORDINATION, WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ALL BUT WESTERN ZONES.

MODELS AGAIN TODAY ADVERTISE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ENTERING WESTERN
KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE OVER THE LOS
ANGELES VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. DRYLINE LOOKS TO SET UP OVER WESTERN
ZONES WITH GOOD MOISTURE IN CENTRAL AND EAST. WILL GO WITH SMALLEST
POPS FOR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE BOUNDARY MAY ALREADY MIX
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES, BARRING MORNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD REMNANTS AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S.

WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ALL ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STORMS
LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND PUSHING EAST. DRYLINE MAY
HAVE TOUGH TIME MIXING BACK WEST AS NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY ENTERS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PUSHES THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST. WILL THUS
RANGE LOWS FROM UPPER 40S IN THE FAR WEST TO AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST,
SIMILAR TO GOING NUMBERS.

DRYLINE MIXES EAST MONDAY TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN ZONES. WITH
SOUTHERN BRANCH JUST TO THE SOUTH, MAY HAVE MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES
CROSSING OVERHEAD AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST. CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES LOOK TO BE IN THE WELL MIXED
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES MAY PUSH 90F (NEAR RECORDS
IN SOME LOCATIONS) AND MAY BE EVEN HIGHER DEPENDING ON EXACT WIND
DIRECTION.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION AMA, GLD, HSI.

DAYS 3-7...

CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK EXCEPT FOR A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES.  UPPER WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE OUT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDWEEK WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.  CONSIDERED YANKING
THE CURRENT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT COULD BE
SOUTH OF THE CWA BY THAT TIME.  WILL LEAVE IN FOR NOW AS THE FRONT
COULD BE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH TOO QUICKLY AND COULD GET HUNG UP
DURING THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEFORE MOVING OUT IN THE
EVENING.  WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE THAT DIVES DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST BEHIND
THE MIDWEEK WAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT AT THAT TIME.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IN THE 8 TO 10 DAY PERIOD STILL LOOKING
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WITH MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES OVERHEAD AND WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.  WILL TREND TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
AND LEAVE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION AS IS.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   56  84  56  89 /  20  30  40  10
GCK   54  85  52  88 /  20  30  40   0
EHA   53  86  50  88 /  10  20  20   0
LBL   55  85  54  89 /  20  30  40   0
HYS   55  82  56  90 /  20  30  40  10
P28   58  84  61  89 /  20  30  40  20

.DDC...NONE.

21/02