Hail in Ohio, April 17, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
217 PM EST WED APR 17 2002

17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM N LK MI...ACROSS SE
WI AND NW IL THEN BACK ACROSS NORTHERN MO. WV LOOP SHOWS SHORT WAVE
MOVING INTO TN VALLEY AND SETTING OFF SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF IT. FRONT
STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS 15Z RUC HAS IT
ACROSS SW LWR MI AND NW IN BY 20Z. WILL STILL HAVE GOOD INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF FRONT AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE GT 2000 AND LI -6. MAY
GET JUST ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE TO WORK WITH THIS INSTABILITY
TO TRIGGER SOME SCT SH/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS TOWARD ISSUANCE TIME BUT PLAN FOR NOW IS TO
INCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE POP FOR EARLY FIRST PERIOD. FRONT THEN TO
LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS DEVELOPING LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN SD. STRONG
LLJ OVER CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST TONIGHT. WITH WARM FRONT RIGHT ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND E/W ORIENTATION OF THICKNESSES SHOULD KEEP ANY MCS
TYPE ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR AREA. EXPECT THU TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH BREEZY...WARM AND UNSTABLE BUT NO REAL TRIGGER FOR ANY
CONVECTION. ONLY POSSIBLE PLAYER WOULD BE ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT MCS ACTIVITY DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
CWA. GIVEN CURRENT 40 POP WILL CONTINUE MENTION BUT LOWER TO 30.
COLD FRONT THEN ARRIVE THU NIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW CREATING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS IN SQUALL
LINE. MODELS DIFFER ON PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT FRI AS ETA TAKES FRONT
THRU AND DOWN TO OH VALLEY BY 18Z FRI WHILE AVN STALLS FRONT
BRIEFLY OVER SE CWA AND BRINGS SFC WAVE ALONG FRONT FRI BEFORE
PUSHING SOUTH BY 12Z SAT. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH GOING FCST AND
KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRI AND DRY FCST BY SAT. NO BIG DIFFERENCES
IN GUIDANCE TEMPS AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAV TREND.

5H VORT/TROF SWINGS THRU THE LAKES SUN NGT AS SFC LO MOVS FROM LWR
MS INTO TN VLY WITH SCT SHRA. SHRA DEPART MON MRNG AS HI PRES BUILDS
IN MON AFTN THRU TUE. ON WED MRF BRINGS STRONG S/W AND SFC LO THRU
THE LAKES. WED SYS LOOKS OVERDONE BUT STILL WORTH A MENTION OF PSBL
SHRA. ECMWF QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN MRF IN OUTER PERIODS AND MRF MAY
BE OVERDOING MID-WEEK COLD AIR PLUNGE SO WILL TEMPER MRF MOS TEMPS
UPWARD.

.IWX...NONE.

JAL/12

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-172330-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
336 PM EST WED APR 17 2002

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THIS EVENING MAY SPARK A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UNSEASONABLY WARM MOIST AIR. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE STRONG AND SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-172330-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORR TO WEB ADDRESS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
336 PM EST WED APR 17 2002

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THIS EVENING MAY SPARK A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UNSEASONABLY WARM MOIST AIR. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE STRONG AND SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IWX