Damaging Wind in North Carolina, June 14, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
705 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2002

WILL UPDATE ZFP AND CWF FOR EXPIRATION OF SVR TSTM WATCH AT 7 PM.

MOST TS ACTIVITY IN ROBESON AND BLADEN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME...WITH
ANOTHER CLUSTER ABOUT TO ENTER MY NRN TIER OF COUNTIES.  WILL BUMP
POPS TO 70 THERE AND MAINTAIN GOING 60 POP ELSEWHERE.  STORMS ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE ON SURROUNDING RADARS (KLTX REMAINS DOWN)...BUT SHAPE
HAS BEEN A BIT SUSPICIOUS.  WILL HOLD MENTION OF ISOLATED
SVR...MAINLY IN INLAND COUNTIES.

STILL A SMATTERING OF STORMS ACROSS SC ASSOCIATED WITH PRE FRONTAL
TROF.  ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS NOT WELL DEFINED.  OTHER THAN TWEAKS FOR
ONGOING WX WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE ZONES.

RAS

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (140 PM) FOLLOWS
-----------------------------------------------------
SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TIL 700 PM.

ACTIVITY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. MSAS INDICATING STRONG
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE RIGHT ALONG COAST
WITH A MUCH WEAKER MAXIMA DOWN AROUND CAE.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE COAST OF
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN ITS WAKE MAY
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY
TO HELP FOCUS CONVECTION AND SLIGHT COOLING/DRYING ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POP. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD.
AVN HAS STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT...NEAR 40 KT. COULD BE ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE BUT LARGE HAIL MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT WITH WET BULB ZEROS
NEAR 10000 FT.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z. SHORTWAVE RIDGE
FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH PERSISTING ALONG EAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS OUT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS NOT LOOKING AS IF
MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS WITH DEEP WEST OR WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY NORTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DECENT OMEGA AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF H5 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WARRANTS A SMALL POP.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND
PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY BUT STILL RIDGING
BACK TO THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MARINE: SEAS 2 TO 4 FT AND BUOYS INDICATING SOUTHWEST WIND 15 KT.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIND AND SEAS TO BREECH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD.
WILL MENTION HIGHER WIND AND SEAS IN THUNDERSTORMS. WIND COMING
AROUND TO WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND THEN BACK TO
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

FCSTID = 27
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS

ILM  72 89 64 87 /  60 10  0 10
LBT  68 89 61 87 /  30 10  0 10
FLO  68 90 61 88 /  30 10  0 10
MYR  72 86 65 86 /  60 10  0 10

.ILM...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

DIGIORGI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
429 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0245 PM    CARVERS CREEK             NC   .75 INCH HAIL
06/14/02   BLADEN                         REPORTED BY HAM OPERATOR.

0255 PM    KELLY                     NC   WIND DAMAGE
06/14/02   BLADEN                         TREES DOWN NEAR HWYS 53
                                          AND 210. REPORTED BY
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGER.

0255 PM    KELLY                     NC   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/14/02   BLADEN                         REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGER.

0400 PM    SOCASTEE                  SC   WIND DAMAGE
06/14/02   HORRY                          POWERLINES AND TREES DOWN
                                          NEAR PALMETTO POINT.
                                          REPORTED BY 911.

MR

AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ096-097-099>101-SCZ033-034-039-046-142319-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
700 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 700 PM EDT...

THE COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED DURING
THE EARLY EVENING. AS A RESULT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 700 PM EDT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL...OTHERWISE MOST
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...WIND
GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

SRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
953 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0730 PM    2NW FAIRMONT              NC   WIND DAMAGE
06/14/02   ROBESON                        2-3 MOBILE HOMES
                                          DESTROYED. REPORTED BY
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGER.

MR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
1004 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0915 PM    LORIS                     SC   WIND DAMAGE
06/14/02   HORRY                          LARGE PINE TREE DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY SANTEE-COOPER
                                          ELECTRIC CO.

MR