Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, June 14, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2002

MDLS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HANDLING UPR LOW OVR GRT
LKS. CLOSED LOW BOTTOMS OUT OVR ERN GRT LKS THEN BEGNS TO ROTATE TO
THE NE AFT 24 HRS OPENING UP AND WKNG AS IT MOVS INTO SW QUE BY 60
HRS. AT THE SFC...BROAD BUT RATHER WK LOW PRES OVR A GOOD PART OF
THE ERN U.S. CNTRD OVER LWR LKS WKNS AS IT PULLS OFF TO THE NE AFT
48 HRS.

ESSENTIALLY STARTS OUT AS A RATHER WET PATTERN WITH THE CLOSED LOW
DROPPING INTO THE AREA. PLENTY OF PVA TO START OUT. HIGHER MN RH
VALUES BGN TO PULL OUT SAT PM FM W TO E.

MDL POPS SEEM TO JUMP ALL OVER THE PLACE PRBBLY PLAYING WITH TIMING
OF PVA. ETA MOS POPS A BIT HIGHER THAN REST 1ST 2 PDS. POPS DRY OUT
A BIT W BUT RMN AT LEAST CHC POPS E SAT NGT AND SUN. ETA AND NGM A
BIT HIGHER THAN FAN FOR THESE LATER PDS.

ATTM WL BRING PCPN INTO W WITH LKLY POPS TNGT AND CHC POPS E. ON SAT
WL DROP BACK TO CHC POPS W AND LKLY TO CAT POPS CNTRL AND E. MAY
CARRY A LOW CHC POP W FOR SAT NGT WITH MORE SOLID CHC POPS REST OF
CWA. FOR SUN WL TRY TO GO WITH A DRY FCST XCPT LOW CHC POPS FAR E
MNLY AM.

GUID TMPS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER FOR 1ST 3 PDS BUT THEN
VARY A BIT FOR HIGHS SUN. WL PRBBLY STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUID
NUMBERS.

.CLE...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.

VRCEK