Ice Storm in North Carolina, December 4 to 5, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
1012 AM EST WED DEC 4 2002

THE WEDGE HAS BECOME FULLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. MSAS SFC ANALYSIS ALSO
STARTING TO DEPICT THE COASTAL TROUGH FORMING. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY INCREASING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS MOISTURE SPREADS IN
FROM THE W...BUT THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM MHX AS WELL AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS AT THE LOW-MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE
GROUND UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT POPS LOOK ON TRACK.

SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET IN THE
CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. WHILE NO PLANS TO ALTER
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION AS THE BATTLE BETWEEN WARM AIR ADVECTION AND EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TAKES PLACE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS LOCATIONS IN THE
WARNING AREA SHOULD SEE FREEZING RAIN DEVELOP THEN CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE
CHANGEOVER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLIER (LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING TIME
FRAME) IN THE ADVISORY AREA THEREFORE RESULTING IN ACCUMULATIONS
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA (1/4 INCH). AN ALL RAIN EVENT STILL
ANTICIPATED FOR COASTAL COUNTIES.

WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST...MAINLY FOR
WORDING.

CWF:  LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS AND SURFACE DATA INDICATIVE OF A COASTAL
FRONT BETWEEN FPSN7 AND BUOY 41002.  WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECTING NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TO BECOME MORE
EASTERLY TOWARD SUNSET AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES WESTWARD.  SEAS OF
5 TO 8 FT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.

FCSTID =  36
ILM   43  43  49  34 /  60 100  70  00
LBT   34  34  41  31 /  70 100  50  00
FLO   35  35  43  32 /  70 100  50  00
MYR   43  43  49  35 /  60 100  70  00

.ILM...
.NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY NCZ087-096.
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ250-252.
.SC...WINTER STORM WARNING SCZ017-SCZ023.
      FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY SCZ024-032-033
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ254-256.

PUBLIC: JAQ
MARINE: RAN

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-041310-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
610 PM EST WED DEC 4 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DARLINGTON
AND MARLBORO COUNTIES.

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ROBESON
...BLADEN...DILLON...MARION...AND FLORENCE COUNTIES.

FREEZING RAIN AND ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES...PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY BE JUST RAIN. IN THE
WARNED AREAS ICE MAY ACCUMULATE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF
AN INCH. IN THE ADVISORY AREAS ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER INCH. THE FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT.

PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS: WINTER STORM
WARNING AND FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT TO REPORT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PFAFF