Ice Storm and Winter Storm in Kentucky, December 4 to 5, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
711 AM EST WED DEC 4 2002

WINTER STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND ICE TO THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE TX/LA BORDER EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE. ETA AND AVN
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND TAKES OVER ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. THE UPPER SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD KY BY THURSDAY
MORNING. COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WILL RESULT IN PRECIP SPREADING NORTH OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND CONTINUING TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ETA AND AVN ON THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL WARMING WHICH WILL OCCUR AND THE TIME OF
PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE ETA IS NOTABLY WARMER THAN THE AVN...WITH
THE DIFFERENCE GREATER ON THE 06Z RUN THAN ON THE 00Z RUN. THE ETA
IS ALSO SLOWER WITH THE PRECIP THAN THE AVN. OUR DEW POINTS LOCALLY
HAVE BEEN COLDER THAN WAS FORECAST BY THE MODELS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT
A COOLER FORECAST WITH A LATER ONSET. WAS PREPARED TO GO WITH THIS
UNTIL THE 06Z MESOETA STARTED COMING IN.  WITH THE ETA DEPARTING
FURTHER FROM THE AVN ON TEMPS...IT CASTS MORE DOUBT ON THE PRECIP
FORM IN THE SOUTH. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH. FOR TIMING OF
ONSET...STILL PREFER THE SLOWER ETA DUE TO THE DRY AIR.

WITH THAT SAID...MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH...WITH A MIX
TO THE SOUTH. TOTALS AROUND I-64 NORTHWARD ARE EXPECTED FROM 3 TO 5
INCHES. HOWEVER...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MORE THAN 12 HOURS FOR THIS TO
FALL. AS A RESULT...THE CRITERIA OF 4 INCHES/12 HOURS OR 6 INCHES/24
HOURS IS NOT LIKELY TO BE MET...AND WILL USE AN ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE
WILL GO WITH A WARNING FOR LIKELIHOOD OF EITHER HEAVY SNOW OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS.

.JKL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR
BATH...FLEMING...MONTGOMERY...AND ROWAN COUNTIES. WINTER STORM
WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR ELLIOT...ESTILL...JOHNSON...
MAGOFFIN...MARTIN...MENIFEE...MORGAN...POWELL...AND WOLFE COUNTIES.
WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL REMAINING COUNTIES.

HAL

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PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW
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458 AM EST WED DEC 4 2002

AFD TEXT WILL BE DELAYED.

.JKL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR
BATH...FLEMING...MONTGOMERY...AND ROWAN COUNTIES. WINTER STORM
WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR ELLIOT...ESTILL...JOHNSON...
MAGOFFIN...MARTIN...MENIFEE...MORGAN...POWELL...AND WOLFE COUNTIES.
WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL REMAINING COUNTIES.

HAL

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1019 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2002

I HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT THE NEW 00Z RUNS AS THEY ARE NOW COMING IN
AND THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING CHANGES.  FIRST...META AND ETA ARE
SLOWER WITH THE PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA.  LOOKS LIKE THAT PRECIP
WILL NOT GET INTO OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z.  ALSO BEEN LOOKING AT THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND IT SEEMS THAT THE ETA AND MESO ETA WANT
TO BRING IN SOME WARMER AIR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SHOULD
THIS VERIFY...MORE OF THE AREA COULD SEE A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIP...WITH THE FAR SOUTH...SEEING JUST PLAIN RAIN...BEFORE CAA
TAKES OVER EARLY THU MORNING CHANGING EVERYTHING BACK TO SNOW.  OF
COURSE...THIS IS JUST THE ETA AND MESO ETA AND THE GFS IS NOT IN
YET...SO I AM RELUCTANT TO CHANGE ANYTHING AT THIS POINT...BUT THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT IS GOING TO HAVE ONE TRICKY FORECAST FOR SURE.

AS FOR THE SHORT TERM...GRADIENT WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP A LITTLE
TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO ADJUST GRIDS.  ALSO WITH MODELS INDICATING
THAT PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z...WILL NEED TO TRIM BACK
POPS IN THE ZONES. PLAN ON GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE FAR
SOUTHWEST GROUP AND KEEPING THINGS DRY ELSEWHERE.

UPDATED FORECAST AND GRIDS COMING SHORTLY.

JARVIS

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550 PM EST TUE DEC 3 2002

CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST IS SNOW AMOUNTS...TEMPERATURES...AND
THEREFORE PRECIP TYPE IN THE SOUTH.  HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR NORTHERN 4 COUNTIES...A WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW FOR THE
MIDDLE TIER OF COUNTIES...AND A WARNING FOR MIXED PRECIP IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES.

EXPECTING PRECIP TO BEGIN AROUND THE 11Z MARK IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  PRECIP TO
START OUT AS SN IN THE MORNING BEFORE MIXING AND CHANGING OVER TO
IP/ZR.  CONCERNED ABOUT PRECIP TYPE(S) IN HIGHEST TERRAIN COUNTIES.
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOVERING NEAR ZERO...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...PRECIP COULD BE CLOSER TO RAIN THERE WITH THE IP/ZR
IN VALLEYS.  QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ONE QUARTER INCH NORTH
TO NEAR ONE INCH SOUTH.  DYNAMICS AND THERMO CHARACTERISTICS
CONSISTENTLY STRONG FOR SIGNIFICANT EVENT SCENARIO.

EXTENDED...AS TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...THE REGION WILL GET
INTO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO END THE WEEK. A WARMUP IS EXPECTED...BUT
TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER...FRI
NIGHT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AND EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT...WITH
MID TEENS IN THE VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 20S ON THE RIDGES. AN ARCTIC
BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
OR SNOW. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL S OF THE REGION AND WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US AS AN OPEN WAVE...A LOW
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST ON THIS BOUNDARY A BIT FARTHER S
THAN THE WED/WED NIGHT SYSTEM. ALSO...ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE
WARMER...BUT STILL EXPECT MIXED PRECIP ON MON NIGHT AND TUE AS THE
LOW MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. CUT BACK HIGHS A BIT FROM MEX NUMBERS
MON AND TUE MORE TOWARD ENSEMBLE VALUES WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION LMK...ILN...BNA...MRX AND RLX.

OUDEMAN/PELTON

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1035 AM EST TUE DEC 3 2002

WILL UPDATE ONLY TO LOWER TEMPS A BIT.  UNDER SLIGHT CAA THIS
AFTERNOON.  DECK OF CLOUDS IN SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA MIGHT INHIBIT
EARLY TEMP RISES.  UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

.JKL...WINTER STORM WATCH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
COUNTIES EXCEPT BATH...FLEMING...MONTGOMERY...AND ROWAN.

OUDEMAN

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-051200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
700 AM EST WED DEC 4 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...

THE FIRST MAJOR WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON WILL AFFECT EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SPREADING PRECIPITATION AS FAR
NORTH AS THE OHIO VALLEY. COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL
ENSURE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS IN A WINTERY FORM. SNOW
WILL BEGIN THIS MORNING IN COUNTIES NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...AND
SPREAD NORTH DURING THE DAY. AS WARMER AIR TRIES TO MOVE IN...THE
SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN
SOME AREAS. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF THIS HAPPENING IS NEAR THE
TENNESSEE BORDER...WHERE EVEN PLAIN RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A
TIME. AREAS FURTHER NORTH HAVE A GREATER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINING ALL SNOW.

DUE TO EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE... A
COMBINATION OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT. PLEASE CONSULT THE WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE PRODUCT
(SDFWSWJKL) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...DETAILS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE CONTAINED IN
OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS. CHECK OUR
WEBSITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/JKL.