Flash Flood in Texas, December 4, 2002

SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
230 PM CST WED DEC 4 2002

A FEW NOTES TO START OFF WITH...TWO RECORDS WERE BROKEN YESTERDAY AT
LCH. YESTERDAYS RAINFALL TOTALED 6.19IN...EXCEEDING THE RECORD
OF 2.93IN SET IN 1994. ALSO A YEARLY RAINFALL RECORD OF 79.88IN
IN 1919 WAS BROKE YESTERDAY WITH OUR YEARLY RAINFALL AMOUNT ADDING UP
TO 81.89IN SO FAR.

CURRENTLY...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INDICATED BY RADAR
EXTENDING FROM THE TEXARKANA AREA THROUGH LUFKIN...HUNTSVILLE
AND PRAIRIE VIEW IN SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LINE IS SLOWLY MOVING TO
THE EAST WITH THE STORMS ALONG THE LINE MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. THERE ARE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS SHOWING UP AHEAD OF THIS
LINE ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN BORDERS OF TX. THE VAD WIND
PROFILE SHOWS 40 TO 50 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 2000FT...INDICATING A
STRONG LLJ PULLING GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA.

THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG WHAT IS NOW A COLD
FRONT. A LOW HAS DEVELOPED IN EASTERN TEXAS HELPING TO PUSH WHAT
WAS A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. HEAVIEST PRECIP APPEARS TO
BE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS...BUT AS THIS LINE
APPROACHES THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIR ON THE BORDER...COMBINED WITH
DYNAMICS FROM RR QUAD OF JET...EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTH. PRECIP ESTIMATES FROM RADARS IN TEXAS INDICATE 2 TO 3 INCHES
STORM TOTAL. ADD THIS TO RAINFALL RECEIVED YESTERDAY AND WE HAVE GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST...THEREFORE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

GOING WITH GFS SOLUTION... HIGHEST PW VALUES THROUGHOUT THE AREA
ALMOST 2 INCHES AT 10-12Z. LOOKING FOR FROPA SOMETIME AROUND 15Z FOR
AEX...18Z FOR BPT...LCH SHORTLY AFTER...WITH LFT FOLLOWING AT ABOUT
21Z. BY 00Z...LINE SHOULD BECOME A LOT MORE DISORGANIZED...BUT PW
VALUES STILL REMAIN AROUND 1IN. BY 06Z RAIN SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF IN
AEX...BPT...AND LCH...AND BY 12Z FOR LFT ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THEY
WILL NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH PRECIP AS IS EXPECTED FOR THE OTHER
REGIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND WE APPEAR TO BE IN A DRY PATTERN BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMP DIFFERENCES BEHIND THE FRONT RIGHT NOW ARE ABOUT 20 DEGREES IN
CENTRAL TX AND 10 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN TX. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
REACHED IN THE MORNING WITH GRADUAL COOLING FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
EXPECTING A DRAMATIC COOL-OFF ON THURSDAY MORNING...WITH EVEN COLDER
TEMPS ON FRIDAY MORNING...AT OR NEAR FREEZING FOR ALL LOCATIONS.

.PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
    WE    TH    FR W T F
AEX 61/34 45/28 51 +0000
BPT 66/37 50/33 54 +0000
LCH 65/37 50/32 54 +0000
LFT 68/38 49/32 53 +3000

.LCH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ450-455-470-475.
    ...FLOOD WATCH TXZ180>182-201-215-216-LAZ027>033-041-042-051.

YOST

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-051101-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 AM CST WED DEC 4 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS LINE...INCREASING THE RISK
OF FLOODING WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND GUSTY...ABOUT 15 TO
20 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION...
THE ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-042200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
448 AM CST WED DEC 4 2002

...LIGHT FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...

COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
20S ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND LOWER
30S CLOSER TO THE COAST ON FRIDAY MORNING.

STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON
THIS SITUATION. ALSO...INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LCH. THE WEBSITE FOR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
LAKE CHARLES.