Hail and Damaging Wind in New York, June 4, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
336 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2002

MOST OF OUR FA IS STILL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING MAINLY THROUGH THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION FIRING UP AT THIS TIME...BUT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO POP UP THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. SOME MODERATELY STRONG CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PARTS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS AREA IS ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE WARM FRONT.

RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF OUR AREA WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT UNTIL THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
OHIO...MOVES TO THE VICINITY OF WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AROUND 00Z.

THE NEXT ORGANIZED BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS DEEP MOISTURE SURGES AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
SURFACE LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS THE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
RISE OVERNIGHT...THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED.

THE LATEST RUN OF THE ETA HAS SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN A BIT AND PUSHES
IT SOUTH ACROSS NEW YORK STATE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN DETERRENT TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR WILL BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON .

TEMPERATURE WISE...READINGS WILL HOLD STEADY OR EVEN RISE ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH
OF THE AREA. I WILL GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WILL INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE ONTARIO
THURSDAY AS THE NORTHEAST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA.

.BUF...NONE.

TJP