Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, June 4, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
745 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2002

ZONES UPDATED TO REFLECT THE IMMINENT FRONTAL PASSAGE.

08
================================================================
430 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2002

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS A LINE FROM
CLAYTON TO DODGE CITY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE
PANHANDLE REGION...AND MAY HAVE A SLOWING AFFECT ON THE COLD FRONTS
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. THE POSITIONING OF THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY
AT PEAK HEATING TODAY...WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. CURRENT
THINKING POINTS TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY AND THE SOUTHERN
ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE PLAY
A BIG PART IN SUSTAINED CONVECTION. STEERING WINDS STILL INDICATE
THAT THIS SLOW-MOVING ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL.
SINCE THE GROUND OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS RELATIVELY DRY...
ANY FLASH FLOODING SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY SURFACE RIDGING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WHILE
TEMPERATURES HOVER THE NORM THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM. COLD FRONT RUSHES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
REGION ON SUNDAY...ATTEMPTING TO INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN.

FCSTID = 8

AMARILLO    84 58 75 52 /  40 60 30
BEAVER      76 55 77 52 /  70 50 20
BOISE CITY  75 52 72 49 /  60 60 20
BORGER      82 58 75 51 /  50 60 20
BOYS RANCH  81 56 73 51 /  40 60 30
CANYON      85 59 76 53 /  40 60 30
CLARENDON   87 63 79 56 /  50 70 30
DALHART     78 54 73 50 /  50 60 20
GUYMON      76 54 75 50 /  60 60 20
HEREFORD    86 59 76 53 /  30 60 30
LIPSCOMB    83 61 77 54 /  60 60 20
SHAMROCK    88 65 79 59 /  50 70 30
WELLINGTON  89 66 80 59 /  50 70 30

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-042200-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE RISK AREA IS MAINLY SOUTH OF A TEXLINE TEXAS TO BEAVER OKLAHOMA
LINE.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...EXITING THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.
NORTH OF THE FRONT...COOL MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO LIFT THE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE
CRITERIA WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS A LESSER THREAT.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING EVENING HOURS. THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RECEIVING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND SKYWARN SPOTTERS THROUGHOUT THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

JH