Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, June 4, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1125 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2002

A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE INDIANA AND MICHIGAN BOARDER
THROUGH LAKE ERIE TO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THIS MORNING. STORMS WERE
FIRING OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO EASTERN LAKE ERIE. THESE STORMS
COULD LEAVE A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. PLUS THERE IS A SHORT WAVE IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO, WITH THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...THE FRONT NEAR NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...AND THE SHORT
WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA...I AM GOING TO RAISE POPS FROM CHANGE TO
LIKELY FOR NC..NE OHIO CWA AND NW PA CWA.

I AM ALSO GOING TO PUT IN THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE
THIS EVENING TOO AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH US.

I AM GOING TO LEAVE SC OHIO CWA AT 40% POPS AS THAT AREA IS FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE WARM FRONT AND THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. I AM GOING TO
RAISE THE HIGH TEMPS FOR THAT SAME AREA TO THE UPPER 80S THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS YESTERDAY WERE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SOUTH
OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THIS WARM
AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SC CWA.

FOR NW OHIO CWA...I, AM ALSO GOING TO RAISE TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR HIGHS.

THERE COULD BE SOME RECORD TEMPS TIED OR BROKEN TODAY...SO I AM
GOING TO MENTION NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR YNG GROUP OF ZONES.
MFD 86 SET IN 1960
YNG 87 SET IN 1949
FDY 90 SET IN 1960

DUE POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S OVER NORTHERN CWA AND IN THE THE MID
70S OVER CENTRAL OHIO...SO, I AM ALSO GOING TO MENTION WARM AND
HUMID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE DUE POINTS SO HIGH THERE COULD BE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...SO,
I AM GOING TO MENTION IN ALL CWA AREA LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

MIS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

THAT IS IT FOR NOW...AND THANKS FOR THE COORD WITH
DTX...IWX...ILN...AND BUF.

.CLE...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.

BAXTER

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-050400-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS INDICATED A RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STATES WILL DROP
SLOWLY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE TO PROVIDE A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...
SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

RESIDENTS OF NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/CLE

VRCEK