Hail and Damaging Wind in New Jersey, June 19, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
905 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2002

DISC: HAVE UPDATED ZNS AND ISSUED SPS FOR HVY RAIN. EXPECTING MORE
LATER TODAY AND ADDITIONAL HVY RAIN. SEE HMDRHA. THETA E RIDGE
COOL POOL ALOFT WITH STRADLING VORT MAX OVER FA TODAY. BOUNDARIES
BOUNDARIES AND MORE BOUNDARIES. LWX SOUNDING FCST K VALUE WAS
27 THIS MRNG BUT MRNG RUN SHOWS K OF 35 WHICH IS INDIC OF ++.

SEE YA LATER THIS AFTERNON...

EBERWINE/MARTIN

************************
JUST AS DRY BEGETS DRY...WE/RE IN A WET PAT AND THUS WE WILL BE
PUTTING CHCS BACK INTO THE FCST FOR TDY AND THIS EVE. THEN ENOUGH
DRY AND STABLE AIR SHLD ARRIVE FOR THU TO PUT AN END TO PCPN CHCS.
THEN THE MDLS INFER A REX TYPE BLOCK IN THE LNGR RNG AS A CLSD LOW
FORMS ACRS THE SE AND MIDWEST RDG NOSES ACRS NY AND NEW ENG. MAY
SOUND ODD...BUT ONCE THE ONSHR FLOW ABATES...MORE HUMID AIR WILL
ARRIVE. ALL THE MSTR IS DOING US WELL. THE COMBINED NRN NJ
RESERVOIRS ARE NOW NORMAL AND THE DE RIVER VLY NYC STORAGE
RESERVOIRS ARE WI 10 PCT OF NML AND ARE STILL RISING AT THE TIME OF
YR THAT ITS USUALLY FALLING.

HGTS WILL RISE TDY AS COLD POOL LOSES ITS PUNCH. H5 TEMPS HAVE RISEN
ABT 3C IN UPSTREAM STAS FROM LAST NGTS ANLYS. BUT...A SHRTWV IS
FCSTD TO SWING THRU OUR CWA BY ALL THE MDLS TAFTN. GRANTED THIS WILL
BE WITH FSCTD INCRG HEIGHTS. THIS SHRTWV IS NOT DOING TOO SHABBY
OVRNGT AS SHRA HAVE BEEN SLO TO DISPT IN PA. AS A MATTER OF FACT
TRAINING ACRS NRN BERKS...SRN LEHIGH AND FAR NRN BUCKS BROUGHT A
DOPPLER RADAR STORM TOTAL ESTIMATE OF 4-5 INCHES WI 2 HRS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

ALL THE MDLS ARE FCSTG A PRETTY UNSTABLE BULLSEYE (LI ABT -7) ACRS
SCNTRL PA TAFTN WITH SBCAPES TO ABT 1500J AND TTS ABV 50. THEY
MAINTAIN THE THETA E RDG THERE ALSO (AS WAS THE LOCATION YDA). THIS
SHLD BE ENHANCED A BIT BY INCRG ERLY FLOW AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DROP
IN THETA E WITH HGT FCSTD TO BE ABT 18C AND THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY
AIR AOA 700MB. THIS ALL SEEMS TO POINT TWD SCTD SHRA/TSRA OCRG
TAFTN (WITH SHRTWV POSN AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN 70S DON/T WANT TO
SAY LATE FOR MOST ZNS). MAY HAVE ADDED TIMING COMPLICATION IN SOME
ZONES AS PCPN HAS YET TO DISPT. UNLIKE YDA CWA WILL BE ON WRONG SIDE
OF ENTR RGN OF H2.5 JET AND MDLS ARE FCSTG CONV ALF. PRBL REASON FOR
MEAGER QPF WITH ABV PARAMETERS. WIND FIELD BLO H7 IS VERY WEAK SO
ANY PULSE SVR TSRA IS GOING TO HAVE TO BE SOLELY DEPENDENT ON
EVAP/DAPE PROCESSES. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED AGN TO GET A COUPLE OF
ISOLD SVR PULSERS LTR TDY.

FCSTD THICK NOW ARE SIM TO YDA/S AND WILL USE YDA/S MAX TEMPS IN
MOST ZONES. ONLY DIF...DVLPG ONSHR FLOW SHLD KEEP CSTL RGNS A BIT
COOLER THAN YDA AND SHLD STALL ANY TSRA TIL LATE IN THE DAY FROM
SPILLOVER FROM INLD LOCNS.

MANY TIMES BITTEN AND MANY TIMES SHY...SO WE WILL INCLD AN EVE CHC S
AND E OF THE SHRTWV ACRS OUR SERN ZNS. OTRWISE INCRG HEIGHTS OVR NEW
ENG CONT TO STRENGTHEN HI PRES NOW FCSTD TO BE HOVERING E OF BOS.
THIS ONSHR FLOW AT LEAST INIT WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER
LVLS TNGT AND SHLD END PCPN THREAT. STILL PRFR SLGTLY MILDER AVN AND
ETA MOS VS NGM WITH CUR WATER TEMPS.

CWA FCSTD TO BE UNDER A THETA E TROF ON THU AS DRIER AIR (AT LEAST
ABV THE SFC) MOVES INTO OUR CWA. SHRT WV WEAKENS AND APRS TO GET
STUCK ACRS OUR SRNS ZNS. EVEN THERE...THERE IS NOT MUCH MSTR TO WORK
WITH. STGR ERLY FLOW SUGG TAKING A DEG OR SO OFF THE FCST MAX TEMPS.
THIS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ETA/NGM MOS THAN THE AVN MAV.

AS IS USUAL THE ETA DVLPS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROF AND ACTUALLY
PINCHES OFF A CLSD LOW LTR THU AND THU NGT BRINGING MSRBL TO OUR SRN
BORDER. ATTM WE WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR THU NGT...BUT WITH THE
ERLY FLOW WE WILL BRING IN SOME (LOW) CLDS INTO OUR SRN ZONES. GUID
MINS ARE CLOSE AND RSNBL.

DON/T PLAN ANY BIG CHGS TO THE EXTDD FCST. SFC RDG SLOLY SINKS SWD
AS H5 LOW FCSTD TO RETORGRADE ACRS SRN STAS. THE ETA IS MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEAT AND ITS INVERTED TROF THAN THE AVN AND ITS
SREF SEEM TO FALL IN LINE. ALTHO THE ETA USUALLY OVERDOES THESE
EVENTS...THE CAN SEF ALSO FCSTS THE CLSD LOW TO LINGER CLSR TO OUR
CWA. THUS WE/LL OPEN THE DOOR AND PUT IN A CHC OF SHRA FOR OUR SRN
ZNS FOR FRI. EVEN THE ETA/S EXTENSION SUPRESSES THIS FEAT FOR NOW
FTHR TO THE SW BEYOND FRI.

MARINE: NO PBLMS.

.PHI...
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
PA...NONE.

TFG

NJZ007>010-012-015-PAZ061-062-068-069-071-191530-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - HEAVY RAINFALL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
837 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE HEAVY RAIN...

HEAVY RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT AND MORE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SAME
GENERAL AREA OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY WITH A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS IN
BUCKS AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE SHORT TERM VERY HEAVY RAIN AND...IN AREAS
WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER...SOME STREET AND HIGHWAY
FLOODING. THE STORMS WERE MOVING TO THE EAST AT NEARLY 30 MPH.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEY TOO WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY LOCALIZED
RAINS.

EBERWINE/MARTIN