Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, June 6, 2002

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
244 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2002

...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING SMALL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES INTO MONDAY...

SURFACE PLOT AT NOON HAD TROUGH IN WESTERN SDAK AND NEB WITH WIND
SHIFT AND DEWPTS IN THE 40S BEHIND TROUGH AND 50S AHEAD. 12Z UPPER
AIR...SATELLITE AND PROFILERS HAVE 700 WAVE MOVING OUR WAY BUT
STILL WEST OF MRR AND RWD PROFILER SITES AT 17Z. SOME AC ASSOCIATED
WITH WAVE NOW ENTERING CWA. SURFACE TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT TEN DEGREES
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

BEST FORCING STILL WELL NORTH WITH EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING QUICKLY
ALONG ZONAL FLOW AFFECTING THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA.  THIS LOOKS
TO BE THE CASE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FRIDAY NIGHT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK BEST IN NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO
FRONT. AVN HAS COME INTO LINE WITH ETA AS FAR AS PUTTING FRONT FROM
NE TO SW NEB WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT FOR 48 HOURS WHICH SOUNDS
FAMILIAR TO A WEEK AGO. INITIAL ACTIVITY STILL TO FIRE WELL NORTH
BUT COULD GET AN MCS OVERNIGHT AND DEPENDING WHERE IT INITIATES IT
MAY CLIP NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.  MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
INCREASE MORE ON SATURDAY WITH AVN AND ETA DEPICTING 15 OR 16C AT
700 MB. THUS WILL LEAVE SAT NIGHT DRY WITH ONLY A STRAY TSTM AT
MOST WHICH AGAIN WAS SIMILAR TO A WEEK AGO.

WILL INTRODUCE POPS IN AGAIN SUN AFTN/EVENING WITH IMPULSES EJECTING
AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC BOUNDARY IN AREA.  MONDAY STILL
LOOKING PROBABLE FOR SEVERE OUTBREAK IN THE PLAINS BUT LOCATION
TOUGH TO TELL AS IT MAY COME ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING
RATHER THAN AFTERNOON. MODELS CONSISTENT IN LIFTING WAVE OUT RAPIDLY
AFTER THAT SO WILL KEEP REST OF FORECAST DRY WITH WARMING TREND AS
RIDGING TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE HIGH AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY
NEXT THURS ACCORDING TO NCEP ENSEMBLE.

.GID...NONE.

EWALD

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-071200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
507 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS PART OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BUT SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GREELEY TO HOLDREGE.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE THUNDERSTORM DOWNBURST WINDS ALTHOUGH
LARGE HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR.

THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DARK.

DROZD