Winter Storm in Missouri, December 4 to 5, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
240 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2002

FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS AND OVERALL TIMING.

AN EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT RAIN...MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AS OF 215 PM. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED SOME OVER THE FAR SOUTH...BUT REMAIN DRY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. 18Z KSGF SOUNDING INDICATED
WARMER AIR NEAR 80H THEN MODELS DEPICTED AT 12Z RUN. HOWEVER...DRIER
AIR CONTINUED NEAR THIS LAYER...WITH A STEADY EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRIER/COOLER AIR INTO THE EASTERN
OZARKS OVERNIGHT. ALSO UPPER AIR CHARTS AND AREA PROFILER NETWORK
THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT THE 92/85H FLOW HAS BECOME MORE EAST
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME OVER ARKANSAS/OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER THE GENERAL
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW AT 92/85H OVER EASTERN MISSOURI MAY KEEP LOW
LEVELS TO WARM TOO QUICKLY. ALSO BUFKIT INFORMATION AND LATEST LAPS
AROUND SOUTHERN MISSOURI STILL HAS WET BULB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING ON THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING.

WILL LEAN TOWARD A WARMER SCENARIO NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER WITH
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY THIS EVENING. HAVE PLACED AN EARLY
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN BEFORE EVAPORATIVE COOLING
TAKES PLACE.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BELIEVE A MIXTURE OF
SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT IS FEASIBLE...BUT
SHOULD TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD. WILL NEED TO LOOK HEAVILY ON LATEST RUC
AND LAPS INFORMATION THIS EVENING TO SEE THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

BY MORNING...SOUNDING INFORMATION KEEPS MOST OF FORECAST AREA IN THE
FORM OF SNOW...MAY BE A LITTLE SLEET IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
DEPENDING UPON SPEED AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LOOKS LIKE MISSOURI OZARKS/SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL BE IN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE EARLY TOMORROW BEFORE THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
HAVE KEPT OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW THRU EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A CHANCE THROUGH THE EVENING FOR FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI.

DID NOT CHANGE ANYTHING IN THE EXTENDED WITH A DRY PERIOD
CONTINUING. MAY NEED TO DECREASE TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

ISC GRIDS ALREADY SENT.

.SGF...
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
MOZ095>098...MOZ101>106.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES MOZ082...
MOZ088...MOZ090>094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES MOZ055>058...
MOZ066>071...MOZ077>081...MOZ083...MOZ089.

KS...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR ZONE KSZ101.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES KSZ073...KSZ097.

JLT

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT:

  SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
  SOUTH OF AN EMINENCE TO NEOSHO LINE.

  SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH OF
  A ROLLA TO LAMAR LINE.

  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH NORTH OF A ROLLA TO LAMAR
  LINE.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE
  EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY MIDNIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

  A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER NEW MEXICO THIS
  AFTERNOON AND WILL SPREAD GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS
  SYSTEM LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVED THROUGH
  THE AREA ON MONDAY WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD AIR MASS IN
  THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE COLD AIR MASS ALREADY IN
  PLACE WILL COMBINE WITH THE MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT TO SPREAD
  FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

  SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
  POSSIBLE BEFORE A BLANKET OF SNOW FALLS TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.
  SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON MID LEVEL
  TEMPERATURES AND HOW FAST TEMPERATURES ALOFT CAN COOL. A SLIGHT
  DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE
  THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS
  TIME...THE POTENTIAL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH A LAYER OF SLEET IS
  EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG INTERSTATE 44...WITH MORE FREEZING RAIN AND
  SLEET ACCUMULATION ALONG THE ARKANSAS BORDER.

  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

  A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SOUTH
  OF A JOPLIN TO SALEM LINE.

  A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NORTH
  OF A JOPLIN TO SALEM LINE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SEND SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DURING THE UP COMING WINTER STORM EVENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

  THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
  REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO ONE
  INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF AN EMINENCE TO NEOSHO LINE. TOTAL
  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES SOUTH OF A ROLLA
  TO LAMAR LINE.  LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL
  FALL NORTH OF A ROLLA TO LAMAR LINE.

FOSTER

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF