Winter Storm in Michigan, March 8, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1006 PM EST THU MAR 7 2002

KAPX 88D SHOWS LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
THOUGH SNOW HAS ONLY BEEN REPORTED AT ERY AND POINTS WEST THUS FAR THIS
EVENING.  LITTLE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER/EASTERN
WI ATTM...WITH PRECIPITATION BLOSSOMING ACROSS MN/WESTERN WI WHERE BEST
LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTERACTING WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO IA...WITH
FORCING ENHANCED BY RRQ OF 110KT JET STREAK NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
00Z APX/GRB/DTX/DVN SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS...THUS THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION ATTM DESPITE STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT.  AS LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT
INTO WI...PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS WI/
UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH GREATEST QPF POTENTIAL OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND FAR NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER 07Z OR SO.  STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON AREA SOUNDINGS WILL ALSO ADD TO PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY POTENTIAL BY ADDING IN A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT.  LIGHTNING DATA
ALREADY HAS SHOWN A FEW STRIKES UPSTREAM THIS EVENING...AND WONT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE
STRAITS AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

MAIN HEADLINES WILL STAY INTACT...WILL PLAY AROUND WITH PRECIPITATION
TYPES A LITTLE BIT.  VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT TRICKY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS TO EXACTLY WHEN
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN.  WILL WORD
FORECAST AS SNOW TO A MIX LATE AND AVOID CHANGING PRECIPITATION OVER
COMPLETELY TO FREEZING RAIN UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.  AS FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...NOT A LOT HAS OCCURRED SO FAR THIS EVENING.  BUT THE
CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT LATER TONIGHT...
WITH HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL OFFSETTING SHORTER DURATION TO SOME
EXTENT.  SO RELUCTANT TO PULL BACK TOO MUCH ON ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT
AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A QUICK BURST OF HEAVY SNOW...PLAN TO NUDGE
THE RANGE BACK TO A MAX OF 5 INCHES.  ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER WILL
CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL TYPE POPS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE...
TAPERING POPS DOWN TO JUST A CHANCE LATE SOUTH OF AN HTL-APN LINE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MAY MENTION SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE HERE WITH 900-800MB
LAYER SATURATED ON BOTH APX/DTX SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH WAA IN THAT
LAYER.  00Z APX SOUNDING STILL BELOW FREEZING...BUT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT STRONG WARM AIR RETURN SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY LIQUID ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER BY THE TIME MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SNOW NEAR THE STRAITS CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN TOWARD MORNING...AND KEEP MENTION OF 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS AGAIN
CONSIDERING POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK SHOT OF HEAVY SNOW.  ACROSS THE REST
OF NORTHERN LOWER WILL MENTION PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN DURING THE
NIGHT...WITH POSSIBILITY OF SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
M-72.

WESTERN END OF WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL MAKE
SOME PROGRESS NORTH TONIGHT ACROSS WI/LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OVERNIGHT.  A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS STILL IN
THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S.  SO WILL PUSH ADVISORY INTO THE MORNING
HOURS FOR TVC-CAD-MBL AREAS. UPDATED ARBZFPAPX WILL BE OUT BY 0335Z.

.APX...WINTER STORM WARNING...OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY...MIZ008-015
       WINTER STORM WARNING...OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...MIZ016-017
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...
        MIZ018>034

JPB