Damaging Winds and High Wind in Oklahoma, March 8 to 9, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
358 PM CST FRI MAR 8 2002

OVER NEXT 12 HOURS THE WEATHER WILL TRANSITION FROM SPRING-LIKE
TO WEATHER MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF LATE FEB.  DRYLINE IS STARTING
TO MAKE A PUSH INTO WESTERN COUNTIES WITH CDS AT 81/22 AND SLAPOUT
AT 79/17.  AS STRONG UPPER JET OVER WEST TEXAS (125KTS) NOSES
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF
DRYLINE (SPS-ALVA) STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO BREAK CAP.  STILL UNCERTAIN
ON AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS.  AS COLD FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE
STATE TONIGHT...BETTER CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35.  EXPECT THAT MAIN THREAT
WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS WILL BE WIND AND HAIL
THEN A GREATER WIND THREAT WITH COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

WILL ALSO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
A GOOD PART OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF CWA
MAY BE ADDED TO THIS LATER.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MUCH CLOSER
TO MAV GUIDANCE THAN FWC.

WILL HAVE PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH SOME
MIXING...BUT WINDS SHOULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT BUT NICE WARM-UP CAN
BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST (MON-FRI)...TIMING WITH NEXT WAVE THAT
WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR MONDAY. HAVE
IN 30 POPS NOW AND THAT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH MAYBE A BETTER
CHANCE ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.  AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY...TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WILL PUSH
ANOTHER BOUNDARY TOWARD THE STATE SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY.  MODELS
DIFFER ON SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF PUSHING
WEAKER FRONT INTO WESTERN SECTIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...
WITH DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING
LOW ACROSS SE CO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY OR LATE WEDNESDAY MRF PUSHES FRONT INTO WESTERN SECTIONS
WITH SURFACE RIDGE INTO TX PANHANDLE.  ECMWF KEEPS BOUNDARY TO
THE NORTH WITH STRONGER SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN CO.  BY FRIDAY
MRF HAS FRONT MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH IMPRESSIVE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.  WITH BOUNDARY OVER OR
NEAR THE AREA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND DEVELOPING TROUGH TO
THE WEST...WILL ADD IN SLIGHT POPS FOR BOTH DAYS.

FCSTID = 6
OKC   31  49  24  60 /  30   0   0   0
HBR   30  53  24  62 /  20   0   0   0
SPS   36  54  26  62 /  20   0   0   0
GAG   23  49  22  62 /  10   0   0   0
PNC   26  48  24  60 /  30   0   0   0
DUA   36  53  24  60 /  60   0   0   0

.OUN...
OK...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM 400 PM CST FRIDAY UNTIL 1000 PM
CST FRIDAY FOR ZONES OKC003...OKC011...OKC039...OKC043...OKC047...
OKC053...OKC071...OKC073...OKC083...OKC093...OKC103...OKC151...
OKC153.
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1 PM CST FRI MAR 8 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ALVA... TO
WEATHERFORD... TO HENRIETTA. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A MINIMAL RISK OF
TORNADOES... MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM
COLORADO ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND A DRYLINE OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD. BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA... EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. TO THE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE... STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON... WITH SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND A LESSER
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. WIND SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE... AND A LOW THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. STORMS WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING... A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA... OVERTAKING THE
DRYLINE.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAY ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE.  THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE MAY INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE SQUALL
LINE... PARTICULARLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD... CLEARING SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ENDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT... VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. NORTH WINDS SUSTAINED FROM 25 TO 40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY BEHIND
THE FRONT... WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE 2
TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
FROM MID AFTERNOON UNTIL THE TIME OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SOMETIME THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.