Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, March 8 to 9, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 PM CST FRI MAR 8 2002

WL SEND OUT ZONES ONCE WATCH IS ISSUED.

TONIGHT: ACTIVE EVENING/NIGHT STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE AS POWERFUL
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM IS
VERY EVIDENT TAKING SHAPE OVER EAST CO VIA WV IMAGERY...WITH DRY
SLOT PUNCHING INTO WEST KS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SCATTERED-OUT SOME
OF OUR LOW CLOUDS...FURTHER ENHANCING INSTABILITIES. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING...WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM FRONT. EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 60 EAST OF
DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF FRONT. ATTM AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO INITIATE
THIS EVENING ALONG FRONT AS CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE...ALONG WITH INCREASED ACCENT AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE
MAIN QUESTION WL BE HOW FAR NORTH THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT. THIS WILL
DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION POTENTIAL. WITHIN A COUPLE
HOURS OF INITIATION AM EXPECTING TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND SWEEP
ACROSS CWA. THERE IS A MARGINAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES BEFORE LINE
FORMS GIVEN AMOUNT OF SHEAR...BUT LIMITING FACTOR WL BE AMOUNT OF
DEEP MOISTURE. MAIN THREAT WL BE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

AFTER STORMS MOVE OFF...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SNOW CHANCES. ATTM
AM THINKING SHOULD MOSTLY BE A FLURRY EVENT...WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT
SNOW OVER CENTRAL ZONES. WL DEFINITELY CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY
OVERNIGHT...TO 12Z SAT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTS
AROUND 50KTS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS ZONES.

MAJOR TEMP DISCREPANCY WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE LOWS. MAV IS
MUCH COOLER WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO FWC. WL BASICALLY
SPIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO...MIGHT ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE PREV FCST. THIS WOULD FALL IN LINE WITH ETAS 2M FORECASTED
TEMPS.

SATURDAY: SFC LOW QUICKLY SCOOTS OFF TO THE NE...AND BY 12Z ALL
MODELS HAVE IT APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FWC CONTINUES TO
BE WARMER WITH HIGHS. TAKING A LOOK AT PARTIAL THICKNESS WOULD PUT
CWA IN THE 40S...WITH LOWER 40S OVER SE. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WE
SHOULD HAVE FAIRLY GOOD MIXING UP TO AROUND 850MB WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. SO A LOOK AT 850 TEMPS ALSO AGREES WITH MID AND LOW 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT: SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO EASTERN OK AND WEST ARKANSAS.
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SOME RADIATION.
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE FINALLY IN MORE OF AN AGREEMENT...AND PREVIOUS
FCST IS RIGHT ON TRACK...SO WL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR TWEAKS ON TEMPS.

SUNDAY: AS SFC HIGH TRACKS EAST...SOME LEE-SIDE TROUGHING
COMMENCES...PROVIDING SOME NICE WARM ADVECTION.  GUIDANCE NUMBERS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PROJECTED 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES...WHICH WOULD YIELD NEAR 60 OVER CENTRAL KS ZONES...AND
MID 50S ELSEWHERE. THIS ALSO AGREES WELL WITH PREVIOUS FCST.
AGAIN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

MON-TUES: SFC LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE MONDAY ACROSS THE OK
PANHANDLE. THIS WL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD. THE
LATEST AVN AND 84HR EXTENSION OF THE ETA ARE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIP
OVER AREA LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY. CURRENTLY FCST HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE...WL JUST INCREASE POPS TO 30 AND GO CHANCE. WL DROP HIGHS
MONDAY AFTER TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT PARTIAL THICKNESS AND PROJECTED
850 TEMPS.  THIS ALSO AGREES WITH THE LATEST MEX NUMBERS. BUT WONT
GO TOO BULLISH SINCE IS STILL A WAYS OUT.

DO NOT SEE TOO MUCH DISCREPANCY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BETWEEN ECMWF
AND MRF 850 TEMPS. WL RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREV FCST BASED ON
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MRF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND ECMWF DOES NOT. BECAUSE OF CONTINUED DIFFERENCES...WL
NOT MAKE TWEAKS TO EXTENDED.

FCSTID = 7
ICT   23  46  24  57 /  50   0   0   0
HUT   20  45  23  58 /  50   0   0   0
EWK   21  45  23  56 /  50   0   0   0
EQA   22  45  23  55 /  50   0   0   0
WLD   27  47  25  56 /  50   0   0   0
RSL   16  45  22  59 /  30   0   0   0
GBD   19  46  23  59 /  30   0   0   0
SLN   19  44  22  57 /  50   0   0   0
MPR   21  45  23  56 /  50   0   0   0
CFV   29  46  24  58 /  70   0   0   0
CNU   28  42  23  55 /  70   0   0   0
K88   27  42  23  54 /  70   0   0   0

.ICT...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES KSZ032>033...
KSZ047>053...KSZ067>072...KSZ082>083...KSZ091>096...KSZ098>100.

LAWSON

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-090600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
110 PM CST FRI MAR 8 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

AS OF MIDDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST
KANSAS...ACROSS THE HUTCHINSON AND MCPHERSON AREAS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...AND INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS.

AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES KANSAS THIS EVENING
FROM COLORADO...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
TO A GREAT BEND TO SALINA LINE. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND
SOUTH FROM THE FRONT...FROM NEAR GREAT BEND TO MEDICINE LODGE BY
EARLY EVENING.

EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ALONG
THE FRONT IN CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS MAY ALSO FORM JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE THAT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AND A POTENTIALLY LIMITING FACTOR.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THE STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO MORE OF A
SQUALL LINE...AND RACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL THEN BE STRONG DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 5 PM AND 11 PM...ACROSS
THAT AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE...FROM GREAT BEND TO SALINA. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

&&

JMC