Hail and Damaging Wind in Kansas, March 8, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
309 PM CST FRI MAR 8 2002

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WINDS AND PRECIP CHANCES EAST TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES ALL PERIODS.

MORNING MAP ANALYSIS SHOWED 110KT NORTHERN BRANCH JET STREAK AT
300MB OVER WESTERN OREGON WITH STRONG SOUTHERN BRANCH FROM BAJA TO
ONTARIO. PLENTY OF CIRRUS TAPPED BY SOUTHERN BRANCH OVER SOUTHERN
PLAINS HELPING KEEP AIRMASS SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
ROCKIES UPPER WAVE WITH -41C TEMPS QUICKLY MAKING ITS WAY EAST WITH
VORT CENTER SURGING EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ARCTIC BOUNDARY CONTINUED TO WAVER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
JUST NORTH OF DDC TO OAX AT 850MB. +5C 850MB DEWPOINTS WERE LOCATED
FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO SOUTHERN IOWA. 19Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED THE
FRONT MAKING ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WITH A
SURFACE LOW NEAR SPD.

FRONT FINALLY SLAMS THROUGH THE ZONES FOR GOOD TONIGHT AS UPPER WAVE
SLIDES EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE
IN QUESTION WITH DRYLINE SURGING WEST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
TRACK LATEST RADAR/SAT/OBS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRYLINE/TRIPLE
POINT MOVE EAST ALONG THE CLARK/BARBER/OK BORDER. STILL APPEARS TO
BE SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SO STORMS MAY NOT FIRE IN BARBER
COUNTY. ANY STORMS SHOULD BE OVER QUICKLY BY 00Z. SNOW CHANCES IN
THE NORTH ALSO DONT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER
BY 06Z AND LIMITED TIME FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP. MAY BE ENOUGH
BAROCLINIC FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR FLURRIES HOWEVER AND WILL KEEP
THIS INTACT. WINDS SHOULD REALLY HOWL AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH AND
MAY TINKER WITH WARMING LEVELS FOR A TIME. THINK AFOREMENTIONED
SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP WINDS UP INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH 50KT
850MB WINDS AND WILL KEEP GOING ADVISORY, EXTENDING IT TO 12Z FOR AT
LEAST THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE ZONES. LOWS WILL BE TRICKY WITH SOME
CLOUDS AND ALL THE WIND BUT THINK AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT
MAV NUMBERS LOOK GOOD.

WINDS DIE DOWN SATURDAY MORNING WITH 1032MB HIGH BUILDING IN AS
RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS TO THE WEST. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S DESPITE LIMITED AFTERNOON MIXING. ZONAL FLOW
HELPS RETURN EQUATORIAL CIRRUS TO THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LEE
TROF DEVELOPING. CLOUDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP
LOWS CLOSER TO THE FWC NUMBERS. JUST HOW MUCH WARM AIR RETURN OFF OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HOW MUCH/THICK THE CIRRUS WILL BE WILL MAKE
SUNDAYS HIGHS TRICKY. WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION 4TH PERIOD WINDS
WITH THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND KEEP HIGHS AT LEAST AS HIGH AS
THE FWC FOR NOW.

DAYS 3-10...
THE DIAGNOSTICS TODAY ARE LESS THAN CLEAR. THE OLR HOVMOLLERS AT CDC
INDICATE A VERY NEBULOUS PATTERN WHILE GLOBAL AVERAGE ANGULAR
MOMENTUM CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DECLINING. ALONG THE ITCZ
THE PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION OVER AND EAST OF MALAYSIA
CONTINUES. PERHAPS MORE SIGNIFICANT OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC IS THE
TROPICAL STORM WHICH DIED NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANNAS. ON GLOBAL
WATER VAPOR LOOPS AN EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EMANATED
FROM THIS STORM INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA PRODUCING SOME UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING JUST WEST OF THE CURRENT UPSTREAM SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. AM UNSURE OF THE RAMIFICATIONS OF THIS FEEDBACK TO THE
HEMISPHERIC AND THENCE SYNOPTIC SCALE AND AM ALSO IN DOUBT AS TO THE
VARIOUS LONG RANGE MODELS ABILITY TO DEAL WITH IT.

THE GOING FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK THROUGH TUESDAY AND ALL THE LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPSTREAM
SYSTEM INTO THE PLAINS WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
LATER PERIODS ARE LESS CLEAR, BUT WITH THE GRADUAL DEMISE OF THE
POLAR UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND WARM AIR FEEDBACKS FROM THE TROPICS THE
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FORECAST BY BOTH THE MRF AND ECMWF APPEAR
QUITE REASONABLE. WILL THUS LEAN TO THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN FOR THE
WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH THE MODELS SUGGEST AND DIG
THE NEXT MAJOR ENERGY ALOFT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES ON FRIDAY
AND ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NEXT
WEEKEND IN THE PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GRAB BAG IN
THIS TIME FRAME AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   15  45  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
GCK   16  45  27  65 /   0   0   0   0
EHA   18  46  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
LBL   17  46  29  66 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   12  43  23  60 /  10   0   0   0
P28   20  48  25  62 /   0   0   0   0

.DDC...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT KSZ030-31-43>46-63>66-76>81-86>90.

POAGE/JOHNSON