Hail and Damaging Wind in Kansas, April 18, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
259 PM CDT THU APR 18 2002

DAYS 1-2...

A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN SD AT 12Z.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES BY TONIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN MN AT 20Z. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT STRETCHED SW FROM THE LOW INTO THE DESERT SW.
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPS WERE ONLY IN THE 30S ACROSS NW SD AND ND. THE
DRYLINE STRETCHED FROM WEST TX TO NEAR P28 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND ALLOW THE CANADIAN
FRONT TO BARREL DOWN THE PLAINS AND OVERTAKE THE STALLED OUT PACIFIC
FRONT LATE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. BEFORE THE CANADIAN FRONT
REACHES CENTRAL KS, A NICE WARM ADVECTION ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS
CENTRAL KS AS THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTERSECTS THE STALLED
OUT PACIFIC FRONT. THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO BE RETREATING BACK TO THE
WEST AFTER 6 PM TOWARDS PAWNEE COUNTY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A ZONE OF
STRONG MESOSCALE LIFT AFTER 00Z AND THROUGH 8Z. THE MOST FAVORED
AREA FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS PAWNEE, EDWARDS AND STAFFORD
COUNTIES WHERE A 40% CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE INTRODUCED, WITH MUCH
LESSER CHANCES AWAY FROM THIS AREA. AFTER 8Z THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
VEER OUT AND THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL CHARGE SE THROUGH WESTERN
KS. ANY STORMS BY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN EASTERN KS. WILL NOT
ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR NW SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT 20-30 MPH TO HOLD.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY SINCE THE CANADIAN FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH. APPEARS THAT P28 MAY STAY WARM IN THE 60S. BEHIND THE
DRYLINE TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE WEST, AND IN THE
FAR NORTH COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO OKLAHOMA FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE
MAIN WAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN NORTH OF THE FRONT IN SE
SECTIONS, AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO GIVE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS THERE.
ON SATURDAY AS THE MAIN WAVE APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS, WARM
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FRONT. WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
STILL TO THE WEST, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE PLAINS, AND
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION, OUR CHANCES FOR SEEING SUN ARE VERY LOW.
IN FACT TEMPS MAY NOT GET ABOVE 42 FROM DDC-HYS. WILL CARRY 30%
CHANCE SHOWERS IN EASTERN HALF, WITH <20% OUT WEST.

DAYS 3-7...

12Z AVN MOVING A VORT LOBE INTO THE CNTL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE SFC FRONT STALLED OUT IN THE TX PANHANDLE AND CNTL OK. WAA NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IS MOIST ADV. 7-5H LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THIS
VORT PROGGED BY THE AVN BETWEEN 7-8C/KM SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHRA
AND TSRA GOING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...ALL MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT SO GIVEN CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY WITH
TEMPS GIVEN THIS COLD AIR MASS INVADING THE CNTL PLAINS.

ON SUNDAY THE COLD CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO OK. SFC WINDS
BEGIN TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY WHILE THE MEAN MID
LVL FLOW REMAINS NORTHWEST. WILL THEREFORE WARM TEMPS UP COMPARED TO
SATURDAY AND FOLLOW 85H AVN TEMPS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK
EMBEDDED WAVES RIPPLE ALONG THE FLOW. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH 80S LIKELY AND
POSSIBLY A FEW 90S BY TUES. AS FOR PCPN...MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS
LACKING UNTIL MID WEEK SO WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING PCPN CHANGES
UNTIL WEDNESDAY. BY MID WEEK ALL MODELS TO VARIOUS DEGREES HINT AT A
STRONGER WAVE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR
INTO THE STATE LATER IN THE WEEK. EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN, BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL INTRODUCE THIS COLDER AIR ON THURSDAY.

FINCH/BURGERT

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   47  57  40  43 /  20   0   0  20
GCK   46  56  40  43 /   0   0   0  10
EHA   46  60  39  46 /   0   0   0  10
LBL   47  59  41  42 /  10   0   0  10
HYS   46  55  40  42 /  20   0   0  20
P28   61  64  45  47 /  20   0   0  30

.DDC...NONE.