Tornadoes and Flooding in Wisconsin, April 18 to 19, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
300 AM CDT THU APR 18 2002

WARM FRONT OVER IA THIS MRNG MOVG QUICKLY NWD AND GENERATING SEVERE
WEATHER OVER MN AND FAR WRN WI THIS MORNING.  FIRST CHALLENGE WILL BE
SVR POTENTIAL FOR HAIL FOR CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING AS INSTAB LIFTED
NORTH OF THE FRONT.  MODELS GENERALLY DMNSHS TSRA ACTIVITY OVR CENTRAL
AND EC WI THIS MORNING AS WARM FNT LIFTS NORTH.  VERY UNSTABLE AIR IN
PLACE THIS AFTN AND EVENING BEFORE ARRIVAL OF CDFNT.  AS A RESULT WILL
CONT SVR WX WRDG IN FCST TDY AND TNT.  WILL ALSO CONT FLOOD WATCH FOR
NRN WI.  CURRENT CLUSTER OF STORMS OVR MN MOVG NEWD TWD THIS RGN.

MODELS INDICATING INSTAB SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AS MUCH COOLER BUT MORE
NORMAL AIR INVADES THE AREA.  WILL LEAVE DRY AS MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED.

OTHERWISE COOL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

.GRB...FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR WIZ005-010>013.

HELMAN
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-181900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT THU APR 18 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...
TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA OR FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BETWEEN 2:00 PM AND 3:00 PM...THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER UPDATES CAN BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST
WHENEVER THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

KIECKBUSCH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-181900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT THU APR 18 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...
TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA OR FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BETWEEN 2:00 PM AND 3:00 PM...THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER UPDATES CAN BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST
WHENEVER THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

KIECKBUSCH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB