Tornado and Hail in Kansas, April 18 to 19, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
345 PM CDT THU APR 18 2002

MAIN FCST CONCERNS: SVR WX POTENTIAL TONIGHT, THEN CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY CONCERNS ARE
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT: ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT T-STORMS PSBL ALONG DRYLINE FM S-CNTRL
KS UP THRU CNTRL KS. ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO FORM THRU CAP, COULD
EASILY BE SUPERCELLULAR IN STRUCTURE. SEE LOCAL HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK
FOR DETAILS. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES, LOW LVL WIND FIELDS SHOULD
BACK AND INTENSIFY IN CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS WITH TRIPLE PT FORMATION IN
CNTRL KS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM NEBRASKA. COVERAGE OF STORMS
SHOULD INCREASE IN CNTRL KS TOWARD 06Z. COLD FRONT IS SLOWER THAN
PROGGED YESTERDAY AND WL ONLY PRESS INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL
KS BY 12Z FRI. DECENT 850 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PROGGED BY MESOETA
OVER CNTRL KS WITH 0-6 KM MEAN WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL TO FRONT
SUGGESTING LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL THREAT. WL TREND TOWARD HIER POPS IN
CNTRL KS, AND LESS IN SERN KS. OTHERWISE LOWS WL BE MILDER IN
S-CNTRL/SERN KS AHEAD OF FRONT THAN IN PREVIOUS FCSTS.

FRIDAY: 850 WINDS TEND TO VEER CONSIDERABLY AND WEAKEN SOME IN THE
MORNING, THUS ANY MCS ACTIVITY SURVIVING INTO S-CNTRL/SERN KS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. ATMOSPHERE COULD BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE IN SERN KS AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...GIVEN HIGHS COULD
REACH THE 80 TO 85 RANGE WITH MID 60S DWPTS. HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT INSTABILITY. WL KEEP DECENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING IN THE SERN ZONES. TRIMMED HIGHS BACK SVRL
DEGREES IN CNTRL KS BEHIND FRONT DUE TO POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WITH 850 FRONT LINGERING FROM W-CNTRL OK ACROSS SERN KS. ETA/AVN
INDICATE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF FRONT FM TIME TO TIME, ACROSS
MOST OF THE FCST AREA, BUT BEST CHANCES FOR LIFT APPEAR TO BE SRN
KS. TRIMMED HIGHS BACK A FEW DEG FOR SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
50S...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NERLY WINDS.

DAY 4 (SUN)- DAY 7 (THURS): GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE MRF PER NCEP
EXTENDED MODEL DISCUSSION AND SINCE IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MRF HAS
HAD THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE MUCH COOLER AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT FRIDAY. LATEST TRENDS INDICATE A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS CONTINUING IN  SERN KS EARLY SUNDAY, AS THE UPR LVL
TROF WL BE EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
BEST LOW LVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 850 FRONT IS PROGGED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF SERN KS, SO SHOULD HAVE A HIGHER PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL TO THE SE OF OUR FCST AREA. OTHERWISE, DID NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS
SHOULD MODIFY NICELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPR TROF
DIGGING TOWARD THE PLAINS FROM THE PACIFIC NW. APPEARS NEXT CHC OF
CONVECTION WL COME TUES NIGHT. SO PLANNING TO PUSH 20-30 POPS INTO
TUES NIGHT.

FCSTID = 9
ICT   61  72  46  56 /  50  40  50  50
HUT   58  67  45  54 /  70  30  40  40
EWK   59  69  46  55 /  70  40  40  40
EQA   62  71  46  56 /  60  40  50  50
WLD   66  76  48  59 /  40  50  50  50
RSL   48  57  40  50 /  60  20  30  30
GBD   53  60  42  52 /  70  30  40  40
SLN   54  60  43  52 /  70  30  40  40
MPR   58  67  46  55 /  70  40  40  40
CFV   71  79  50  59 /  40  60  60  60
CNU   66  76  48  58 /  50  50  50  50
K88   64  72  48  57 /  50  50  50  50

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-182300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1108 AM CDT THU APR 18 2002

...MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 6
OR 7 PM...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL HELP TO SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE DRYLINE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS...WILL REMAIN SITUATED FROM CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT WILL BE THE TWO AREAS THAT WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED FOR CONVECTION.  LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

THERE ARE PLENTY OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK
THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE
80S...TO EVEN NEAR 90 IN SOME LOCATIONS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE ON THE DRYLINE TO ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 6 OR 7 PM.  THE CONVECTION WOULD INITIATE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINCOLN CENTER...TO ELLINWOOD...TO GREENSBURG LINE.
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS...AND EVEN A TORNADO.

AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WILL INTERSECT THE DRYLINE IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AT AROUND SUNSET.  THIS WILL BE THE SECOND AREA WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. THESE STORMS MAY TRY TO EVOLVE INTO A
SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT.  IF THEY DO...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL GO WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE FRONT WILL
NOT CLEAR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL SOMETIME TOMORROW.  THE
PRIMARY THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME HAIL.

FRANK

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-182300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1124 AM CDT THU APR 18 2002

...MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 6
OR 7 PM...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL HELP TO SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE DRYLINE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS...WILL REMAIN SITUATED FROM CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT WILL BE THE TWO AREAS THAT WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED FOR CONVECTION.  LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

THERE ARE PLENTY OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK
THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE
80S...TO EVEN NEAR 90 IN SOME LOCATIONS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE ON THE DRYLINE TO ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 6 OR 7 PM.  THE CONVECTION WOULD INITIATE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINCOLN CENTER...TO ELLINWOOD...TO GREENSBURG LINE.
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS...AND EVEN A TORNADO.

AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WILL INTERSECT THE DRYLINE IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AT AROUND SUNSET.  THIS WILL BE THE SECOND AREA WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. THESE STORMS MAY TRY TO EVOLVE INTO A
SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT.  IF THEY DO...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL GO WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE FRONT WILL
NOT CLEAR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL SOMETIME TOMORROW.  THE
PRIMARY THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME HAIL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED AFTER 6 OR 7 PM THIS
EVENING.  STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST
OF THE WEATHER SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON.

FRANK