Hail in Kansas, April 17, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
3 PM CDT WED APR 17 2002

MAIN PROBLEMS ARE CONSIDERATIONS OF STG CONVECTION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THEN AMT OF COOLING AND PCPN CHCS INTO THE WEEKEND.

VERY WARM ON THURSDAY WITH SOME READINGS NEAR RECORD HIGH LVLS...AM
USING MESO-ETA SFC TEMPERATURES FOR MAX TEMP GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY.

RATHER SLIM CHCS FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT. NOT QUITE SLIM ENUF TO
PRECLUDE MENTION...BUT WILL HOLD WITH MINIMAL POPS FOR THREE
REASONS...ALL OF WHICH MAY BE RATHER WEAK. FIRST IS WARMFRONTAL
BOUNDARY. LATEST PROFILERS FROM 19Z SHOW BNDRY JUST OFF THE SFC
(FIRST SVRL GATES OF PROFILERS) SHOW IT ALG NRN BORDER. ALL SMALLER
GRID MODELS INCLUDING MESO-ETA AND WORKSTATION ETA SHOW SFC FNT MVG
RAPIDLY NORTH REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE A STORM OR TWO
ALONG NRN BORDER EARLY BUT MORE LIKELY TO NORTH OF CWA. SECOND
REASON IS CONVECTION TRYING TO GET ITSELF TOGETHER ALG DRY LINE WRN
OK. THIS COULD DVLP FURTHER NORTH NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN MAY TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CWA LATE EVENING. HOWEVER WOULD NOT EXPECT THIS TO
MAKE MUCH PROGRESS EAST...IF IT EVEN MAKES IT THIS FAR. NOTE AND
AGREE WITH ICT THAT STORMS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT TOO FAR
INTO KS...LET ALONE MY CWA. BUT STILL SOME REMOTE THREAT. PROBABLY
THE BEST THREAT...ALBEIT STILL QUITE SMALL...IS THE THREAT FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION WITHIN THE LOW LVL JET LATER TONIGHT. BUFKIT
SNDGS IMPLY THIS AFT MIDNIGHT WITHIN AREA. IF THIS HAPPENS, THIS
CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO TMRW AM. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH
SLGT CHC FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT...THEN MENTION CONVECTION CNTRL AND
ERN PTN CWA ON THURSDAY. FOLLOWING MESO-ETA LOW LVL MOISTURE
PROFILE... WRN PTN CWA NOT LIKELY TO SEE ANY CONVECTION TMRW SINCE
DRYER AIR LIKELY WORKING IN BY MIDDAY TMRW. QUESTION THEN BECOMES
WHERE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETS UP BY THIS TIME THURSDAY. ALSO
AGREE WITH ICT THAT TMRW COULD BE AN ACTIVE SVR WX DAY. NUMEROUS
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES MOVG OVR AREA LATE IN THE AFTN COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH IMPETUS FOR EXPLOSIVE DVLPMT. GIVEN CURRENT MESO-ETA
FCST...WOULD SUSPECT THAT MAY HAPPEN NEAR OR JUST EAST OF A
SENECA-ABILENE LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTN. CONVECTION WOULD THEN PUSH
EAST OVR REST OF CWA...EXITING SOUTHEASTERN PTN OF CWA AFT MIDNIGHT.

LATER FORECAST PDS PROBLEMATIC TOO. IF HPCS SFC WX DEPICTION IS
RIGHT...CANT SEE MUCH SUPPORT FOR PCPN OVER THE WEEKEND...CERTAINLY
NOT TSTMS. OF COURSE, COULD SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH SOME
OVRRNG...BUT WIDESPREAD PCPN NOT LIKELY. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES BLO CLIMO LIKELY. NICE RECOVERY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IF LESS CLOUDS OCCUR THAN FORECAST...WEEKEND TEMPS WOULD NOT
BE THAT FAR REMOVED FROM CLIMO HIGHS/LOWS...I.E. 60S/40S.

.TOP...NONE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1114 PM CDT WED APR 17 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1111 PM    3 SW CARLTON              KS    1.25 INCH HAIL
04/17/02   DICKINSON                       PUBLIC REPORTED HALF
                                           DOLLAR SIZE HAIL