Damaging Wind in Georgia, June 7, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
323 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2002

SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ONGOING WITH FRNTL BNDRY ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTION OF CWA AND THIS ACTIVITY IS INTERACTING WITH THE SEABREEZE
BNDRY WHICH IS ALSO QUITE ACTIVE. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO THE N OF
THIS BNDRY ALIGNED WITH 850 FRNT. WILL DECIDE ON POPS FOR TONIGHT
BASED ON FINAL LOOK AT RADAR AT ISSUANCE TIME. WILL PROBABLY GO IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY. THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL FILL IN OVERNIGHT FOR
OVERCAST SKIES AND TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.
EXPECT SFC FRONT TO CLEAR THE CWA BY 12Z. THE 850 BNDRY IS NOT SO
CLEAR CUT AS THE MODELS SHOW DIFF TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF UPPER
LVL BNDRIES AND PRECIP FIELDS. GIVEN LACK OF PRECIP IN THE MIDLANDS
AND LITTLE ACTIVITY IN COASTAL NC...WILL LEAN TOWARDS DRIER FCST AS
IN ETA MODEL.

THINK COOL ONSHORE FLOW WITH A CLOUDY START ON SAT WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL LEAN TOWARDS MORE OPTIMISTIC ETA
AND BREAK OUT CEILINGS ON SAT. WARMING TREND BEGINNING SUN WITH A
POP FREE FCST THROUGH TUE.

EXTND: WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO PREV FCST. RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO THE NW OF THE AREA SUN AND MON AND SLIDE OFF THE MIDATLC
COAST TUE KEEPING THE AREA WARM AND PRECIP FREE. WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF TSTMS FOR WED AND THU IN RETURN FLOW WITH UPR TROF
APPROACHING. EXPECT BETTER CHANCE THU THAN WED AS ATMOSPHERE WILL
HAVE HAD MORE TIME FOR RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE MOISTURE. FRNTL BNDRY
TO APPROACH THU. AVN SHOWS PROBABLY SPURIOUS LOW SPINNING UP IN THE
BAHAMAS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THINK THIS IS FORCING
FNTL BNDRY OFF THE COAST TOO QUICKLY FRI. WILL KEEP PRECIP IN FCST
FOR FRI ALSO TO ALLOW FOR SLOWER TIMING OF POSSIBLE FRNT.

CWF: EXPECT A DECENT SURGE IN NE FLOW DVLPG LATE TNGT.  BELIEVE
CONDS WL BECOME MARGINAL FOR SCA THRESHOLDS LATE TNGT BUT MNLY
SAT...SO WL CONT WITH CURRENT HEADLINE FOR SCA CONDS PSBL BUT WL
PUSH THE TIMING BACK TO SAT INSTEAD OF TNGT. NW WND OF 15 TO 20 KT
WL PROBABLY CONT INTO SUN NIGHT WITH CONDS IPVG SLOLY ON SUN.

CHS   68  80  65  83 /  50  20   0   0
SAV   69  80  65  84 /  50  30   0   0
CHL   72  78  70  81 /  50  30   0   0
NBC   69  79  66  83 /  50  30   0   0
RBW   67  79  64  85 /  40  30   0   0

.CHS...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

SLF/SR