Tornado and Hail in Nebraska, June 7, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
237 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2002

EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN AFTERWARDS IN THE NERN ZONES.  COMBINATION
OF SPEED SHEAR...MOISTURE...SFC FRONT AND VARIOUS DERIVED SEVERE
WEATHER INDICATORS SUGGEST A TORNADO COULD FORM WITHIN 50 MILES OF
SOUTHERN ROCK OR BROWN COUNTY LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN SLOWLY EVOLVES INTO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IN
NORTHEAST ZONES OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...700MB CAP...NEAR 13C AT 17Z LBF SOUNDING VERY CLOSE TO
MODEL.  CAP IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15C BY 00Z.  THIS WOULD
LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SW NEB TO ISOLD-SCT COVERAGE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING DICTATING STORM LIFE CYCLE.  HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
THE MAIN THREATS.

BEYOND...700 MB CAP INCREASES TO 16C SAT AND CONTS STRONG THRU SUN.
LARGE SCALE TROF AND ATTENDANT DRYLINE/DRY SLOT PUSH THRU FCST AREA
SUN NIGHT.  WENT WITH 20 POP.  COUPLED JET OF YESTERDAYS AVN IS NOW
OVER SRN CANADA SO POP IS MAINLY FOR DRY LINE BULGE.

MON-FRI...AVN HAS BACK PEDDLED ON CAA.  A DRY FCST.  TEMPS ABOUT 10F
BELOW NORMAL.

.LBF...NONE.

CDC

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-072045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1138 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF A FROM VALENTINE TO MULLEN
TO OSHKOSH. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LINE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO NEAR A SPRINGVIEW...TO THEDFORD TO
BIG SPRINGS LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...AND AS THE FRONT
STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG IT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF A LINE FROM NORTH PLATTE TO THEDFORD TO VALENTINE...BUT MAY
OCCUR ANYWHERE ALONG THE FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH MOST OF THE STORMS...BUT
WINDS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE SUGGEST A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...
INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

AFTER STORMS DEVELOP...THEIR INITIAL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 25 MPH...HOWEVER IF STORMS BECOME SEVERE...THEIR
MOVEMENT MAY CHANGE TO AN EASTERLY OR POSSIBLY SOUTHEASTERLY
MOTION...AT 10 TO 15 MPH. IF THE STORM MOTION SLOWS FURTHER...THE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY LATE EVENING...BUT MAY LINGER INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.