Hail in Florida, April 17, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
255 PM EDT WED APR 17 2002

CURRENTLY...THE SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES. SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WHICH HAS MOVED A LITTLE
SOUTH IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAYS POSITION. UPPER RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN U.S. EAST COAST SEABREEZE BEGINNING TO MOVE IN AND WAS
JUST EAST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER. WSR 88D INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS
BREAKING OUT WITH THE SEABREEZE FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS A LITTLE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY AND
THEREFORE EXPECT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF STORMS. HOWEVER...LIKE
YESTERDAY THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE SHOULD PUSH WEST AND KEEP MOST OF
THE STORMS NEAR GULF COAST REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WILL
THEREFORE WILL GO WITH LOW POPS RANGING FROM 10 PCT COAST TO 20 PCT
INLAND. WILL ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE IN A FEW AREAS. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK GOOD...WILL GO
ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER.

THURSDAY...RIDGE SLIPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...EAST COAST SEABREEZE
STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT NEAR I-75 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. POPS
WILL BE HIGHEST INLAND AGAIN. ALSO...TALE END OF WEAKENING SHORT
WAVE MOVES THRU SOUTH GEORGIA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE WHICH MAY
HELP ENHANCE THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVE ESPECIALLY IN GEORGIA. BOTH AVN AND MESO-ETA INDICATING AREA
OF LINGERING PCP IN SOUTH GEORGIA THURSDAY EVE. WILL THEREFORE GO
WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EXTREME NORTH FLORIDA INTO INLAND SE
GEORGIA (40 PCT BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY AND NIGHT). LOWEST POPS
WILL BE IN THE EAST AGAIN (20 PCT). GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK GOOD
OVERALL.

FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND BECOMES MORE EAST WEST
ORIENTATED. SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
EAST COAST SEABREEZE NOT AS STRONG...BUT WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT TO
NEAR U.S. 301...SO WILL SEE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS IN
THE EAST. HAVE GONE WITH 30 TO 40 PCT POPS EVERYWHERE FRIDAY AND 30
PCT INLAND FRIDAY EVE WHERE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE. WILL ONCE
AGAIN HAVE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE IN
THE PLACES THAT GET THE RAIN.

SATURDAY/EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OUT WITH
BERMUDA HIGH RIDGE SLIPPING FURTHER SOUTH TO ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. MRF SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU MONDAY NITE BUT WANT
SEE MORE RUNS BEFORE COMMITTING TO THIS. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS
FCST OF CHC OF AFTERNOON STORMS GEORGIA AND SLGT CHC FOR FLORIDA.
TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.

MARINE/FIRE WX...NO CONCERNS...EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

PRELIM CCF
AMG BB 062/087 063/086 063 08244
SSI BB 065/080 065/081 066 08122
JAX BB 062/085 063/086 063 08122
SGJ BB 065/080 065/081 065 08122
GNV BB 062/087 062/086 063 08242
OCF BB 062/087 062/088 063 08242 08

.JAX...
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...PETERSON
AVIATION/FIRE WX...ZAPPE