Winter Storm in Connecticut, November 16 to 17, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
335 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2002

.DISC...
PCPN SLIDING INTO SRN PRTN OF THE CWA ATTM. FRZG RN AND SLEET ACRS
THE XTRM SRN PTN OF THE CWA WITH SM LGT SNW INTO THE CAPTL RGN AS
FAR N AS GFL. TEMPS ARE AOB 30 FROM ALB N AND ARND 32 AT POU. AQW
COMING IN AT 35 WITH A 3 DEG JUMP DURG THE PAST HR.

...MAIN CONCERNIG TO BE ICING...

.SHORT TERM...
WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM WARNING AND A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CWA. WL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ULTSER
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. ICING WILL BE THE MAIN PROBLEM OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. POSBLTY EXIST FOR .25 TO .50 INCH OF ICE WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMNTS IF HEFTY QPF NMBRS VERIFY ACRS THE RGN.

MN PBLM WITH THE FCST IS THE POOR HNDLG OF THE STRM SYSTM AND THE
ASSOC LLVL AND MID LLVL THERMAL PROFILES. MDLS ARE OFF AND VARY
GREATLY ACRS THE RGN. DID A 18Z RAOB RUN AND HAD A 963MB TEMP OF
-6.0C WHILE THE 12Z MDLS GAVE THE FOLLOWING VALUES NGM +1.2C AT
966MB ETA -0.8C AT 964MB AND THE AVN AT -0.9C AT 962 MB. THE NUMBERS
ALSO VARY AT H8 WITH ONLY THE ETA BEING CLDR. THE TREND HAS BN TWDS
THE CLDR VALUES OF THE AVN MOS NMBRS WHICH ARE AT LEAST IN THE
BALLPARK FOR THE TEMPS ACRS THE RGN TDY. THE OTHER MDLS HAVE BEEN
WAY OFF. LATEST MDL RUNS A TAKING ON A MORE EASTERLY POSITION ON THE
SFC TRACK OF THE LOW AND KP THE CWA UNDER A N TO NE FLW. MDLS WARM
UP THE LLVL AND MLVLS AND I CANT SEE HOW THIS IS POSSIBLE. MAJORITY
OF MDLS ALL HV FRZG/FRZN PCPN CHNG OVR TO RN TNGT. WL GO WITH THE
MINORITY AND KP THE RGN UNDER THE CLDR AIRMASS AND MAINTAIN A FRZG
RN EVENAT ACRS THE CWA. POSSIBILITY EXIST FOR .25  OR BETTER OF ICE
ACCREATION BY MRNG WITH THE N CNTRY FAIRING THE WORST AND ABT .10
ACRS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO CT. NCEP DISCS LN TWDS THIS SCENARIO
AS DID WWE DISC. LK THE WWE TRACK OF THE LOW AND HV USED THIS AS
BASIS FOR FCST. MDLS DO NOT DPN THIS INITIAL LOW QUICKLY UNTIL ITS
UP IN THE GLF OF ME AND DO DPN SCNDRY LO AS IT TRAVELS TEH SAEM PATH
UP THE COAST. WRAP AROUND PCPN MAY BECM SGNFCNT ACRS THE N CTRY LT
SUNDAY AS FRZG PCPN CHNGS BACK OVER TO SNW WITH A GRADUAL CHNGOVR
ACRS THE MHWK VLY CPTL RGN INTO SRN VT AND THE BERKS. MAY SEE SM
ACCUM SNWS HERE AS WELL BUT FOR THE TIME BEING WL JUST MENT LTL
ACCUM PSBL AS MOST OF TIME WAS SPENT ON H12-H24.

HV DISMISSED THE FWC/MEX NMBRS AND WENT WITH THE AVN AND ACTUALLY
COOLED THEM DWN A DEG OR TWO ACRS THE RGN BASED ON 18Z SNDG AND
CURRENT OBS. WSETA ALSO SHWG WEDGE OF CLDR AIR SLIDING SWWD ACRS THE
RGN FROM SRN VT AS THE NGT PROGRESSES AND SFC TO H90 TEMPS DROP TO
ALMOST -2C. AGREE WITH MDLS THAT WAA AT THE MID LVLS WILL OCCUR BUT
NOT TO THE DEG THAT THEY INDICATE BUT ENOUGH THAT THE EVENT WILL NOT
BE  FRZN ONE FOR THE RGN UNTL LTR SUN.

.LONG TERM...
DID SM MINOR TWEAKING TO THE XTND NOTHING MAJOR.

.HYDROLOGICAL STATUS...QPF NMBRS INDICATE GT 1.25 INCHS ACRS THE HSA
WITH HIS SYS AS HI PWS ADVCT INTO THE NE. RUNOFF WILL FLW INTO
STREAMS AND RIVER AND DO NOT SEE AHYDRO PBLM DVLPG ATTM WITH THESE
NMBRS. UPSLOPE RGNS OF THE BERKS/CATSKILLS CUD FAIR HIER WITH QPF
NMBRS BUT AGN DO NOT THNK IT WL BE A PRBLM. NEVERTHELESS, THERE ARE
LIKELY TO BE SHARP RISES ON THE RONDOUT...WAPPINGERS...TENMILE...AND
THE POMPERAUG...ALONG WITH A FLOW INCREASE ON THE LOWER PORTIONS OF
THE HOUSATONIC.

.ALY...WINTER STORM WARNING THRU SUNDAY FOR
NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-
 058>061-MAZ01-VTZ013-014.
 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THRU SUNDAY FOR NYZ063>066-CTZ01

CTZ001-MAZ001-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-VTZ013-014-
170945-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
449 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...
HEAVY FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM THE CATSKILLS NORTHWARD
TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND ACROSS
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO BERKSHIRE COUNTY.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HALF AN INCH OR MORE OF ICE ON POWER LINES AND TREES.  A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THOSE AREAS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THOUGH SEVEN...
HEAVY FREEZING RAIN MAY LINGER TO MID MORNING SUNDAY FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS TO SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
RAIN BEFORE NOON.  THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY
MORNING IN THESE AREAS.

AFTER SUNDAY MORNING...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.