Flash Flooding in Florida, November 16, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN
325 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2002

CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH
THE CWFA ITSELF BISECTED BY CONTINUOUS RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER IN
LEVY CO (NOW FADING OUT) AND MORE PRONOUCED IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTY.  ENTIRE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM NOW TAKING SHAPE IN THE GULF...
AND FCST REMAINS COMPLICATED.

ONE GOOD THING IS THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT.  THE OUTLIER
IS THE ETA...WHICH IS SLOWEST IN MOVING POST-FRONTAL SWATH OF HIGH
RH EASTWARD...A RESPONSE TO SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF UPPER
FEATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  THOUGH SYSTEM IS DEEPENING...IT
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...AND PREFER THE NEARLY IDENTICAL
GFS/CANADIAN/NOGAPS/UKMET SOLUTION...WHICH PULLS THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE EAST OF THE CWFA BY MID AFTN SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM:
POTENTIAL FOR WX HAZARDS ABOUND TODAY.  REALIZING THE POTENTIAL IS
ANOTHER MATTER.  THESE HAZARDS INCLUDE SEVERE WX (MAINLY WIND DMG
AND ISOLD TORNADOES)...LOCAL FRESHWATER FLOODING (GENERALLY URBAN)...
AND A SLIM CHC FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CLEARLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM ORGANIZING...WITH BAROCLINIC S-SHAPE LEAF
NOW DEVELOPING FROM S OF LOUISIANA THROUGH THE TN VALLEY.  TAIL OF
THE S SHOWING A DEVELOPING DIFFLUENT AXIS...WHICH IS ALSO AIDING
RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ABOUT 300 NM N OF WESTERN CUBA...AND
ALONG A LINE FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO DUE S OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.

COVERAGE OF SEVERE WX WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON DESTABILIZATION.
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST CLOUDS/PCPN WILL BE PREVALENT IN MOST
AREAS SOON AFTER SUNRISE WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.
COUNTERRACTING WILL BE STRONG DYNAMICS.  EXPECTED SQUALL LINE SHOULD
WEAKEN SOME WHEN ENCOUNTERING THE MORE STABLE AIR...BUT A FEW CELLS
ARE LIKELY TO PUNCH THROUGH...PRODUCING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.  ISOLD TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN HIGHLY DYNAMIC SITUATIONS
SUCH AS THESE.

LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO SURGE NORTHWARD.  ALREADY...RADAR HAS ESTIMATED OVER 2 INCHES IN
PORTIONS OF COASTAL LEE AND CHARLOTTE COS...AND SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS
COULD PRODUCE UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
GIVEN ANTECEDENT AVERAGE AUTUMN RAINFALL PREFER TO HOLD OFF ON ANY
WATCHES...BUT WILL CERTAINLY HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH SOON AFTER ANY CONVECTIVE LINE...AND BE
FOLLOWED BY A QUICK AIR MASS CHANGE AS WELL AS MORE STRATIFORM
RAINS.  INTERESTINGLY...250 MB JET AXIS STRETCHES S OVERNIGHT AS
DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES...WHICH KEEPS DECENT DIVERGENCE ACROSS
THE AREA.  TEMPS WILL FALL...SLOWLY AT FIRST AS MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE OFF THE GULF.

WILL CONTINUE LOW-TOPPED SCT PCPN SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND
S.  CLEARING WILL BEGIN FROM THE N BY AFTN AND SHOULD REACH
EVERYWHERE BY SUNSET...BUT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE AS STRONG CAA SURGES
ACROSS.

EXTENDED:
WELL BE FLIRTING WITH WIND CHILL ADZY CONDITIONS MON MORNING AS
WINDS VEER TO THE N...DRAINING THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON
ACROSS THE CWFA.  CURR FCST TEMPS/WINDS SUGGEST WIND CHILLS JUST
ABOVE CRITERIA...BUT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE EXTENDED HWO.
THEREAFTER...LOOKS LIKE A GREAT SPELL THROUGH MID WEEK WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS/RH.  NEW GFS IS RECONSIDERING YET
ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH FOR LATE THURS AND ESPECIALLY FRI...BUT GIVEN
THE LARGE CHANGE FROM 24H AGO PREFER TO CARRY PARTLY CLOUDY AND AWAIT
NEW DATA.  RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS MAY BE MORE FACT THAN
FICTION...SO STAY TUNED.

MARINE:
CONDS NEARING CAUTION AS I WRITE...WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
E/NE N OF 28N AND SE S OF 28N.  AS DYNAMICS PUSH WARM FRONT N...
EXPECT AN INCREASE OF S WINDS TO OR JUST ABOVE SCA TOWARD MIDDAY
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...SO WILL LEAVE SCA IN PLACE BUT BACK DOWN A
TOUCH ON AVG WINDS.  NO QUESTION ABOUT TONIGHT AND SUN...PLENTY OF
WIND AND HIGH SEAS MEANS A ROUGH GO.  IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY.

FIRE WX:
NO PROBLEMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WILL EVALUATE MONDAYS THREAT AS
WE GET CLOSER.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
BKV 073/057 060/037 +830
TPA 075/060 064/043 +840
GIF 076/060 064/042 +840
SRQ 075/062 066/045 +850
FMY 076/065 068/048 +850

.TBW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BONITA BCH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM
       INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

88/GOLDSMITH

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-161600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
605 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING THROUGH THIS
EVENING...
...SCATTERED LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
...HIGH WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...

...RAINFALL...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS
MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE SUNCOAST BY LATE MORNING.
OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CURRENT DATA SUGGEST STORM TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 5
INCHES...LOCALLY 8 INCHES OR MORE...FROM SARASOTA COUNTY SOUTH BY
EARLY SUNDAY.  ELSEWHERE NEAR THE COAST...2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY 6 INCHES OR MORE.  SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS OF THE SUNCOAST...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING TODAY.
STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...INCLUDING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
OR URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES...LATER TODAY.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
AN APPROACHING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE THE WINDS.  SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.  A SQUALL LINE MAY PRECEDE THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG IT AS WELL.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND.  ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE.

RESIDENTS...EMERGENCY SERVICES PERSONNEL...THE MEDIA...AND OTHER
INTERESTS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS STORMS
TODAY.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER SOURCES FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

...MARINE HAZARDS...
MARINERS...PARTICULARLY SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS...MAY WANT TO CANCEL
WEEKEND TRIPS INTO THE GULF.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DANGER.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE
RISING SEAS AND ROUGH SURF.  SEAS WILL RISE AS HIGH AS 10 FEET NEAR
SHORE...AND UP TO 14 FEET BEYOND 60 NM...BY LATE TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

...COLD WEATHER ON THE WAY SUNDAY NIGHT...

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S ALONG THE NATURE
COAST SUNDAY...AND REMAIN BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ELSEWHERE.  BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET.  READINGS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE 30S NORTH OF TAMPA BAY TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE.  VALUES WILL
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

WIND CHILL VALUES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

A MODERATING TREND WILL BEGIN LATER MONDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

BSG