Damaging Wind in Colorado, May 16, 2002

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
207 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2002

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  MAJORITY OF THE
STRONGER CELLS LIVING A QUICK PULSE LIFE AS THEY BRIEFLY INCREASE IN
STRENGTH AND THEN FALL APART .  SOME LIGHTNING NOTED EARLIER NORTH OF
EAGLE AND NEAR THE DIVIDE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  LOW LEVELS HAVE
MOISTENED UP SLIGHTLY VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO WITH DEW POINTS UP 5 TO 10
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN MOST AREAS. A FEW OF THE NORTHERN METAR SITES
INDICATED BRIEF PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER
SHOWERS...SO EXPECT TO SEE A BIT MORE PRECIP REACH THE GROUND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN ALOFT AND WITH SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING IN
WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE THROUGH...EXPECT A QUICK END TO THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTN ZONES NEAR
THE DIVIDE. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES.  12Z AVN RUN
SHOWING A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH THE RIDGE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
MAINLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA.  FEW DEGREES WARMING
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPS THEN HOLDING
STEADY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.  JDC

EXTENDED (MON-THU)...HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKY PATTERN ON MON WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW NEAR THE WEST COAST AND ONE OVER THE ERN STATES.
LATEST EXTENDED AVN FASTER THAN ITS PREV RUN BRINGING WEST COAST LOW
INLAND AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NE. BELIEVE THIS IS TOO FAST AND PREFER
THE SLOWER EC. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR SRN
MTNS ON MONDAY IN DEFERENCE TO AVN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING SOME SOUTHERN
TAP TO MOISTURE...AND WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE MTNS ON TUE DUE
TO TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF WEST COAST LOW...BUT WILL KEEP
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN STILL ON WED FOR NOW. WARM AND WINDY ON TUE...AND
IF TSTMS DO DEVELOP THEY COULD BE HIGH BASED WITH DRY LIGHTNING FOR
POTENTIAL FIRE WX CONCERNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.   JAD

.GJT...NONE.