Flash Flooding in Missouri, May 16 to 17, 2002

Name: Flash Flooding in Missouri, May 16 to 17, 2002
Start: 2002-05-16T22:35
End: 2002-05-17T13:00
Location: Missouri

May 16 to 17, 2002 · NWS PAH · 6 events in 6 counties and zones

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $15,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 6

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.

At Marble Hill in Bollinger County, flash flooding of Crooked Creek inundated a residential area. Although this flooding was on a lesser scale than the May 12-13 flooding, several people were evacuated. Several gravel roads were washed out in the county. In Stoddard County, several roads were closed by high water, including Highway E between Bloomfield and Idalia. In downtown Cape Girardeau, extensive street flooding occurred, affecting a few businesses. Firefighters rescued a man whose vehicle stalled in high water on Route 177 on the north edge of Cape Girardeau. In Mississippi County, parts of U.S. Highway 60 were closed. Several roads were closed in Scott and Wayne Counties.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 16, 1:00 PM CST, 9 hours 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 16, 1:00 PM CST, 9 hours 35 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2002

12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED RIBBON OF H8 MOISTURE FM SRN PLAINS-UPR
MIDWEST...BEING TAPPED BY H5-H7 VORTS...EJECTING ACROSS MO. IR SHOTS
SHOW ONGOING CONVECTION EXTENDING FM CNTL MO BACK INTO SE KS ALONG
THIS RIBBON...WHERE H8 THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH FM TX AND K
INDICES ARE IN 30-35 RANGE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS NOT SO MUCH HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL
BUT WHERE WILL IT BE HEAVIEST. MODELS ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
PRECURSING VORT WL RACE NE OUT AHEAD OF MCS TONIGHT...WHICH WL YIELD
SCT 1/4-1/2 AMOUNTS IN GENERAL THRU MIDNIGHT. THEN AFT MIDNIGHT...MCS
DEVELOPS IN PLAINS AND RACES EAST AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO PAH
FA...LAYING OUT ROUGHLY ACROSS OH RIVER BY 12Z. CONVECTION SHOULD
THEN FOCUS ALONG BOUNDARY THRU THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH TOTAL QPF
RANGING FM 1-3 FA-WIDE. WHILE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY
EXISTS...AVN/NGM SOLUTIONS PREFERRED WITH THEIR MORE SIMILAR COMMA
HEAD SHAPED DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTAL SYSTEM...THUS PAINTING HIGHEST
QPF POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH (SEMO-WKY).

WITH RIVERS ALREADY IN FLOOD...AND GROUNDS FAIRLY SATURATED FM
RECENT HEAVY RAINS...ITS PRETTY MUCH A NO BRAINER TO CONTINUE FLOOD
WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WL KEEP LINGERING EARLY FRI NIGHT CHC...THEN CLEAR OUT AS DRY AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS
COOL/DRY...WITH BOTH FMR/MEX GUIDANCE TRENDING DOWN...SO WL TWEEK
TEMPS COOLER THRU DAY5...THEN REBOUND WED-THU AS UPR HIGH SHIFTS
EAST.

.PAH...FLOOD WATCH LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALL OF CWA.
HUMPHREY

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 16, 7:55 PM CST, 2 hours 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
855 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0834 PM    PUXICO                    MO   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/16/02   STODDARD                       REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTERS

0852 PM    BELL CITY                 MO   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/16/02   STODDARD                       RELAYED BY SKYWARN
                                          SPOTTER THROUGH STODDARD
                                          COUNTY EM

Special weather statement, May 16, 10:10 PM CST, 25 minutes before

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-171008-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1110 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2002

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

THREATS...
A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS
HEAVY RAIN WOULD LIKELY INCREASE THE CURRENT FLOODING
PROBLEMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE LEVELS...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH ITS APPROACH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL START
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. SO...THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS MAY SEE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN TONIGHT...WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL SEE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOMORROW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE 1 INCH OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN
AN INCH SOUTH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH RAIN GAUGES...WILL BE NEEDED TO
HELP MONITOR WATER LEVELS AND REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SPOTTERS SHOULD ALSO REPORT ANY NEW ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO THE
RAINS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY...
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LARGE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL THE MAIN THREATS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 AND
A HALF INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 88 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:36 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

6 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flash Flood, Cape Girardeau

When: May 16, 10:35 PM CST to May 17, 5:30 AM CST
Where: Cape Girardeau County, Countywide
Property damage: $15,000
Reported by: NEWSPAPER
Coordinates: 37.384, -89.684 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Flash Flood, Bollinger

When: May 16, 11:26 PM CST to May 17, 5:30 AM CST
Where: Bollinger County, Countywide
Reported by: BROADCAST MEDIA
Coordinates: 37.322, -90.026 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Flash Flood, Wayne

When: May 16, 11:40 PM CST to May 17, 5:00 AM CST
Where: Wayne County, Countywide
Reported by: LAW ENFORCEMENT
Coordinates: 37.113, -90.461 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Flash Flood, Scott

When: May 17, 3:45 AM CST to 5:30 AM CST
Where: Scott County, Countywide
Reported by: LAW ENFORCEMENT
Coordinates: 37.053, -89.568 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Flash Flood, Stoddard

When: May 17, 3:45 AM CST to 5:30 AM CST
Where: Stoddard County, Countywide
Reported by: LAW ENFORCEMENT
Coordinates: 36.856, -89.944 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Flash Flood, Mississippi

When: May 17, 5:25 AM CST to 1:00 PM CST
Where: Mississippi County, Countywide
Reported by: LAW ENFORCEMENT
Coordinates: 36.828, -89.291 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Flash Flood: Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Missouri in 2002 Every state in 2002 This day in weather history Warnings in Missouri, May 2002

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5295800, 5295799, 5295804, 5295802, 5295803, 5295801.