Hail in Florida, May 16, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
312 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2002

CURRENTLY...INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE...SFC OBS AND 88D RETURNS INDICATE THAT
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS DEVELOPING FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH...
WITH A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING ON IT. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRE
OFF...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND
SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE. BASED ON THIS WILL CARRY 30% POPS
COASTAL/INTERIOR ZONES FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH...AND 20% FAR NORTH

SHORT TERM...NO REAL CHANGES NOTED ON MODEL RUNS THIS AFTERNOON SO
AGAIN WILL USE A BLEND. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TOWARD
UPPER TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST MOVING ACROSS THE SERN GULF
STATES ON SATURDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE FA ON SUNDAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVES E-SEWD WITH A SE THEN S-SWLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
THE S-SWLY FLOW WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS (40-50% RANGE) INTERIOR ZONES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN VICINITY OF THE SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS...
THEN WE SHOULD SEE MORE UNIFORM POP COVERAGE ALL ZONES ON SUNDAY AS
THE FRONT AND ITS UPPER SUPPORT GETS INTO THE ACT. GUIDANCE TEMPS
CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL ACCEPT.

EXTENDED...(MON-THURS)...LATEST AVN DEPICTS UPPER TROUGHING REMAINING
OVER THE EASTERN SEA BOARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH
NOSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL FAVOR A BREEZY NELY WIND
FLOW. SLOW CLEARING TREND STILL DEPICTED TO MOVE INTO THE NRN MOST
ZONES ON MONDAY...THOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES SHOULD STILL FAVOR SOME LOW POP PREMISE. BY TUESDAY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST...SO WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY BREEZY
WORDING INTACT. TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
LAST FROPA...WITH READING EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS.

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY E-SEWD OVER THE ATLANTIC
WILL ALLOW A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY WITH A PM SEA BREEZE COMPONENT. THE FLOW
WILL THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SHIFTING INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
IN ITS WAKE WITH WIND AND SEAS LIKELY INCREASING TO SCEC OR LOW END
SCA CRITERIA.

FIRE WEATHER...MOIST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAGS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

THANKS FOR COORD KMLB.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
BKV 067/088 069/088 2324
TPA 072/088 073/088 3324
GIF 070/090 072/089 3534
SRQ 070/087 071/087 3324
FMY 071/090 072/090 3334=

.TBW...NONE.

MCMICHAEL

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-162115-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1122 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2002

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THE PRESENT
TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FROM THE
TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTH WHERE THE BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS.

REMEMBER...WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS
TIME...UNPLUG APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE
STORM ENDS BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

MCMICHAEL