Damaging Winds in Texas, May 16, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2002

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING AT MID AFTERNOON WEST OF A
LAWTON OKLAHOMA...AND BIG SPRING ALONG THE DRY LINE. THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING.  LIKEWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST.
WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 30 AND 40S...
AND 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL MOVE INTO
NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY MORNING...AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST LATE
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL END ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.

FCSTID = 58
DFW   70  81  56  75 /  30  40  30  10
ACT   72  84  58  78 /  20  50  40  20

.FWD...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES AREAWIDE THIS EVENING.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-162100-

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
145 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF LAMPASAS...TO WACO...TO ATHENS LINE.  A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION...LIMITED SUNSHINE...AND LITTLE LARGE SCALE LIFT
WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO FORM. HOWEVER...GOOD
INSTABILITY ALOFT WOULD MAKE ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO NORTH
TEXAS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG SURFACE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.  AREA BOATERS ARE ADVISED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION VENTURING ONTO LAKES.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-171000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
340 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2002

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT NORTH OF
AN EASTLAND...WAXAHACHIE...SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE SOUTH OF THIS LINE. THE FIRST AREAS TO EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ARE THOSE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF AN
EASTLAND... TO GAINESVILLE LINE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST AND NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST
AND NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING.  LATER TONIGHT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH
OUT OF OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE RED RIVER COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS WILL ENCOUNTER AN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTENT WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT...AND COOLING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SURFACE.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TURN MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH HAIL
AS THE MAIN THREAT...BUT MOST SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

AS FOR WINDS...STRONG SOUTHERLY AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD LAY THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE LATER
TONIGHT.  BOATERS ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE CAUTION VENTURING ONTO
AREA LAKES THIS EVENING AND LATER TONIGHT.