Hail in Colorado, June 4, 2002

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
330 AM MDT TUE JUN 4 2002

...SEVERE POTENTIAL...RAIN POTENTIAL ARE MAJOR CONCERNS TODAY...
...REPRIEVE IN FIRE WEATHER DANGER TODAY MOST AREAS...

GETTING INTERESTING.  PLENTY OF MESO AND EVEN TVS ALERTS OFF KPUX
DOPPLER THIS EVENING.  KEEPIN US HOPPIN.  ALL FEATURES HAVE BEEN
ELEVATED WITH NO CIRCULATION EVIDENT AT OR NEAR THE SURFACE.  MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN (WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE HIGH 40S TO HIGH 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF CWA) AND HAIL TO AROUND 1/2 INCH DIAMETER.  WHILE STORMS ARE
POPPING QUICK THIS MORNING (LIKELY BEING TRIGGERED BY PASSING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE)...LAPS/BUFKIT INDICATED CAPES DO NOT APPEAR
GREAT...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THINGS COULD
INTERESTING AGAIN.  MODEL GENERATED CAPES DO NOT APPEAR NEARLY AS
GREAT AS YESTERDAY (ONLY 200-600 J/KG AVAILABLE AT 18Z ACCORDING TO
MESOETA SUITE ACROSS ENTIRE CWA)...THESE ESTIMATES MAY BE QUITE LOW
IF WE GET BETTER SURFACE HEATING VIA SUNBREAKS THAN MODELS FORESEE.
SPC HAS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK...AND THIS SEEMS
VERY REASONABLE.  MAIN THREATS WOULD APPEAR TO BE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ACCORDING TO LATEST ASSESSMENTS...BUT ALSO ENOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR
FOR SOME TORNADIC THREAT.  BEST AREA FOR SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOST COUNTIES WHERE
RICHEST SURFACE MOISTURE/LOWEST LCLS AND PROBABLY BEST SHEAR WILL BE.

OTHER BIG CONCERN WITH STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT IS RAIN POTENTIAL.
PROSPECTS ARE LOOKING THE BEST THAT IVE SEEN IN WHILE AS FAR AS
ACTUALLY GETTING SOME MEASURABLE RAIN OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA.  NCEP
QPF BRANCH HAS PERHAPS BULLISH AMOUNTS OF 24 HR QPF ENDING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY OF .25-.50 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
WOULDNT THAT BE GRAND.  WHILE MAP VALUES OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE...DO NOT THINK IT IS UNREALISTIC TO EXCEPT
WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE ON THE ORDER OF .1-.2 INCHES BY 12Z
WED...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAIN RANGES EASTWARD.  THIS IS
NOT TO SAY THAT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR
BETTER COULDNT OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SINCE HIGH RESOLUTION BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING PWS ON THE ORDER OF 1 INCH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  SO...GET READY FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS?
LETS HOPE  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVEN PUSH INTO THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND UP THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS/LA GARITAS AS MESOETA
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATED WESTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/UPSLOPE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  AGAIN...LETS HOPE.

THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY GIVE FIRE FIGHTERS A CHANCE TO BREATH AND
MAKE UP GROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FIRE
DISTRICT TODAY...AND OVER ALL AREAS BY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  MANY OF THE EASTERN RAWS SITES...INCLUDING COPPER
GULCH...NEAR OF THE IRON MOUNTAIN FIRE...HAVE ALREADY SHOWN NICE AND
RAPID RH RECOVERY THIS EVENING...RISING FROM 7% WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 15 MPH AT 615 PM...TO 70% WITH EAST WINDS GUSTING TO 10
MPH AT 215 AM. THIS IS GOOD NEWS. HAVE EVEN SEEN RECOVERY AS FAR
WEST AT BLUE PARK RAWS IN THE LA GARITAS WHERE THE RH HAS CLIMBED
FROM 4% AT 855 PM TO 48% AT 255 AM (WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME).

WILL HAVE TO CUT REST OF DISCUSSION SHORT.  POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE MIDST MOVING INTO OTERO COUNTY.  BUT BRIEFLY...STILL
COOL/MOIST INTO WEDNESDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY TO SOME EXTENT
BEFORE THINGS START TO REALLY HEAT UP AND DRY OUT AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MORE WIND TOO.  SUNDAY...CURRENT TIMING HAS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RACING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...FOR MORE WIND BUT PROBABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.  SYSTEM LOOKS
MAINLY DRY...WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH...BUT COULD BE
SOME CONVECTION WITH PASSAGE THIS TIME OF YEAR.  WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR HAS WE GET CLOSER.  GOT TO GO FOR NOW.

.PUB...NONE.