Hail and Damaging Wind in Colorado, June 19, 2002

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
253 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2002

NORTHEAST SFC WINDS HAVE MADE IT ONTO THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH
DEWPTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S UP IN WYO AND BEGINNING TO ENTER
THE CWA. MESOETA BEGINS TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIP BY 00Z IN AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TRRN AND THEN DRAGS IT OUT EASTWARD INTO NE/KAN BY 06Z.
WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BIT MORE CLOUD OVER WYO TDY BUT WILL KEEP THE
SCT POPS GOING FOR TONIGHT AS DYNAMICS AND COOLING ALOFT COME INTO
PHASE WITH THE UPSLOPE TO 700MB AND SUFFICIENT SFC HEATING FROM THIS
AFTN. CURRENT FCST IS IN LINE. MESOETA FCST CAPES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS TGNT WELL ESPECIALLY EAST OF WELD. UPSLOPE
AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY WITH FCST CAPES REMAINING
WELL ABOVE 1200 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON HRS. COULD EXPECT SOME LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST EARLY THURS BUT MESOETA CROSS SECTIONS DONT
STAY SOCKED IN ALL DAY. LIKE THE IDEA OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR
THUR AFTN ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT TSTORMS A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE SEVERE WITH GOOD SHEAR FOR A SHORT TIME IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF SEVERE AND LET EVENING CREW ASSESS
LOCATION AND POSSIBILITY. LOWER AND MID LVL FLOW TREND BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY FRI ACCORDING TO THE MESOETA AND CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE A RETURN TO DRYNESS AND STABILITY WITH 700MB TEMPS WARMING
BACK TO THE 14-17 DEGC RANGE. AVN FOR FRI ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWING
MOISTURE HOLDING IN EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH SOUTH TO SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST LOW LVL FLOW. WILL AGAIN GIVE MORE WEIGHT OT THE MESOETA
WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR PRECIP. ALL MDLS HAVE A SERIES OF RIPPLES
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH OVR THE GRT BASIN SO WILL
LEAVE AT LEAST AN ISOLD CHANCE FRIDAY FOR AFT AND EVE DESPITE STRONG
WARMING ALOFT. GOING INTO SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME
WITH THE AVN HAVING A MOIST BIAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. ATTM...WOULD
RATHER STAY THE COURSE WITH THE CURRENT ISOLD POPS AND CONSISTENT
WITH FIRE WX ZNS.

LONGER TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNES...UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS PASSED
INTO EASTERN MT BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND AVN FINALLY BCMG DRYER WITH
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND TROF. 5890-5920M 500MB HGTS ARE OVER THE AREA BY
MON. MRF INDICATING THAT THE RIDGE WILL GET STRONGER THROUGH WED
WITH HEIGHS APPROACHING 5950M.  WILL KEEP EXT DRY.  FREDIN

.DEN...NONE

COZ030>051-192000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
1045 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2002

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE  BOULDER     BROOMFIELD  CLEAR CREEK  DENVER
DOUGLAS   ELBERT    GILPIN      GRAND       JACKSON      JEFFERSON
LARIMER   LINCOLN   LOGAN       MORGAN      PARK         PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK  SUMMIT    WASHINGTON  WELD

SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO THIS MORNING.  DEEPENING LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS.  THIS OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DURING
MAXIMUM HEATING TIME WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS ON SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT.  ADEQUATE
SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...COOLER WITH SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE.

GARD...WFO BOULDER