High Wind and Strong Wind in California, December 16, 2002

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
855 PM PST SUN DEC 15 2002

RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SPRINKLES
SPREADING EAST OVER FRESNO, MADERA AND MERCED COUNTIES. THIS TREND
HAS BEEN OCCURRING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND BASED ON MONTEREY
RADAR, SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST MESO ETA MODEL, IT APPEARS
THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IR IMAGERY SHOWS
A RATHER LARGE AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN AN AREA OF WARM
ADVECTION (WARM FRONT) WEST OF MONTEREY. THIS AREA WILL UNDOUBTEDLY
SPREAD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.  WITH THE 850
AND 700 MB WINDS PROJECTED TO INCREASE QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT, I
EXPECT THE COASTAL RANGE RAIN SHADOW TO BE AN IMPORTANT DELAYING
FACTOR IN THE SOUTHWARD SPREAD OF SJV PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY.
THESE WINDS SHOULD, ON THE CONVERSE ALLOW FOR IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
(AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL) AMOUNTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LATEST
MESO ETA 48 HOUR QPF FORECASTS SUGGEST NEARLY 6.00 OF RAIN AT
YOSEMITE, AND 5.00 IN SEQUOIA. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO AT LEAST
2-3 FEET OF SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE PRECIPITATION TAILS OFF
CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME YOU REACH TEHACHAPI, WHERE AMOUNT ARE
UNDER 1.00 BY LATE TUESDAY. AS STATED ABOVE, THE MESO ETA KEEPS THE
SJV DRY FROM FRESNO SOUTH THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY, AND THEN
ONLY GIVES THE BAKERSFIELD AREA JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS BY LATE IN THE
DAY, DUE TO EXTREME SHADOWING FROM THE SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. FINALLY BY MONDAY EVENING, AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS THROUGH, THE KERN COUNTY SECTION OF THE SJV AND THE
DESERTS ARE PROGGED TO GET SOME REAL PRECIPITATION. THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD GET QUITE A BIT MORE. ON TUESDAY, YET ANOTHER
COUPLE OF PACIFIC DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA, AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS STRONG AND PERPENDICULAR TO
THE SIERRA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE
UNABATED IN THE SIERRA AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS, WHILE THE SJV AND
KERN DESERTS STILL GET SHADOWED.

AS FOR WINDS, LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SIERRA, FOOTHILLS AND
UPSTREAM OFFICES SHOW SPEEDS CONTAINING TO INCREASE. LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL SHOWS SPEEDS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY TO BE IN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE SJV, THUS THE
ADVISORY SEEMS FINE. WILL OPT THIS EVENING TO TAIL BACK THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION BOTH TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN THE SJV AND OTHER
ZONES.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SUITES FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A QUASI ZONAL FLOW EXTENDING
OFFSHORE WITH OCCASIONAL PERTURBATIONS RIDING INTO THE STATE.
THURSDAY FINDS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR BY AND LARGE BETWEEN
IMPULSES...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO RETREAT EAST OF
THE AREA. MAY SEE SOME VALLEY FOG THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE DAMP
GROUND AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES BEGIN ERODING THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW PLUNGING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BONA FIDE MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS TO
CALIFORNIA...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES EVEN
BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRAJECTORY
OF THIS LOW.  WITH ITS PROXIMITY...WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GOING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.  AS THIS LOW PASSES
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CAA FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS LEADS TO A TUMBLE
IN SNOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
SCARCE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE SHUNTED FURTHER EAST.
MODELS HINT AT A DRY SPELL SUNDAY...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AND PER AFTERNOON COORDINATION CALLS...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SUNDAY.   BURGER

.HNX...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA NORTH
       OF KERN COUNTY...MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
    ...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
       THROUGH MONDAY.
    ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT
       AND TUESDAY.

DUDLEY

CAZ089>099-161400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
330 PM PST SUN DEC 15 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...NORTH OF
KERN COUNTY...IS IN EFFECT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WINTER
STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF VERY POTENT AND MOIST
STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO 18 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA. ANOTHER STORM IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO SFOWSWHNX...(WWUS46 KHNX).

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

DUDLEY