Winter Storm in California, December 16 to 17, 2002

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED DATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
350 AM PST MON DEC 16 2002

KHNX 88D INDICATING AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWFA AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW
CONTINUES TO SPREAD MOISTURE INLAND. METAR/RAWS OBS INDICATING THAT
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LIGHT AND HAS HAD DIFFICULTY
REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. MUCH OF
THIS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE COASTAL RANGE AS
KHNX VWP AND SHORT RANGE RUC PROGS ARE INDICATING 850 MB WINDS AROUND
40 KT. 06Z MESO INDICATING STRONGER OMEGAS PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR TODAY WHICH SHOULD HELP ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWFA. 06Z MESO QPF/S INDICATING 4-6 INCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS A BIT
OVERDONE BUT 2 TO 3 FEET OF NEW SNOWFALL AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS APPEARS
REASONABLE BASED ON LATEST RFC QPF GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM
WARNING GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION WON/T REACH THE KERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FOR THE KERN MOUNTAINS PROGGED
FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY....WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WATCH
GOING. ANOTHER ISSUE TO DEAL WITH TODAY IS WINDS. WITH A 6 TO 8 MB P-
GRAD BETWEEN KMCE AND KBFL EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF TODAY WILL
KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR
TODAY AND EXPAND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN VALLEY ZONE AS MET SUGGESTING
A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 28 KTS AT KNLC NEAR 18Z TODAY. THE
MAIN COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING SNOW
LEVELS TO PLUMMET TO 4000 TO 4500 FEET BY EARLY TUESDAY AS A MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. WIDESPREAD CAA
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY
UNSTABLE. A WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR TIMING PURPOSES HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS SINCE IT USUALLY HAS THE
BEST HANDLE ON FAST MOVING SYSTEMS. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY BY 3 TO 5 DEG F AT MOST LOCATIONS BASED ON YDAY/S MAX/S AND
LATEST MAV GUIDANCE.  DS

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY TIMING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES TO
AFFECT THE CWA THURS-SUN. NEVERTHELESS...PROGS ARE SIMILAR
PROJECTING ENERGY FROM THE GULF OF AK APPROACHING THE NORCAL COAST
LATE THURS/FRI...SHIFTING INLAND FRI NIGHT. THOUGH A BRIEF RESPITE
MAY OCCUR BEFORE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN...WILL
CONTINUE TO BROADBRUSH POPS THRU SUN GIVEN LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE PROJECTED BY 00Z GFS.  JSN

.HNX...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA NORTH
       OF KERN COUNTY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
    ...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY.
    ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT
       AND TUESDAY.

CAZ089>099-161400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
330 PM PST SUN DEC 15 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...NORTH OF
KERN COUNTY...IS IN EFFECT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WINTER
STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF VERY POTENT AND MOIST
STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO 18 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA. ANOTHER STORM IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO SFOWSWHNX...(WWUS46 KHNX).

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

DUDLEY