Hail and Damaging Wind in North Dakota, August 7, 2001

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
825 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2001

FCST CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION.

EARLY EVE SFC MAP SHOWS LOW IN SE SASK WITH WARM FRONT INTO FAR SRN
MB AND TROUGH THROUGH FAR ERN MT.  ACTUAL COLD FRONT FARTHER WEST
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SRN ALBERTA.  SATELLITE ALONG WITH 70H TEMPS
WOULD INDICATE NRN EDGE OF CAP EXTENDS JUST NORTH OF A BIS-FAR-BJI
LINE.  SFC MAP ALSO SHOWS WK TROUGH ALONG THIS AXIS AS WELL.

FIRST BATCH OF ELEVATED WEAK CONVECTION THAT WAS NR MINOT LATE
THIS AFTN HAS MOVED EAST AND FALLEN APART AS IT APPROACHED WRN
CWFA.  STRONGER TSRA THAT GOT GOING IN ERN MT NOW MOVING EAST AND
LOCATED BTWN MOT/BIS.  NO SVR YET.  18Z MESO ETA INDICATES 35-40KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL GET GOING BY 06Z WITH NOSE IN NCNTRL ND AND THEN
IT MOVES OVR THE NE ND/NW MN AND SRN IN THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME.  THUS
EXPECT SOME EVOLUTION OF TSRA IN WRN ND/ERN MT INTO A LARGER COMPLEX
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

GOING FCST AND BREAKUP LOOK GOOD WITH HIGHEST POPS NRN ZONES (NORTH
OF TROUGH) AND NO POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE CAP WILL REMAIN.

AS FOR THE HEAT ADVISORY...MUCH OF ERN ND AND A FEW PLACES IN NW MN
REACHED 105F LATE THIS AFTN...AND WITH DEW PTS CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT EXPECT HEAT INDICES TO REMAIN ABV 80F TONIGHT.
THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY LOCATION FOR TONIGHT.

WILL RE-ISSUE NEW NPWFAR AND ZONES SHORTLY AFTER 9 PM.

.FGF...HEAT ADVISORY ALL CWFA EXCEPT WC MN TONIGHT.

RIDDLE