Hail in North Carolina, May 25, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
200 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2001

DEEP CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER IL/IN.  SPEED MAX PUNCHING UP
INTO ERN KY SHOWS UP NICELY IN WV IMAGERY...AS DOES A SECOND MAX
DIVING DOWN THE PLAINS.  THIS SECOND SPEED MAX AND ACCOMPANYING VORT
WILL BE MAIN PLAYERS IN POSSIBLY GETTING SOME PRECIP INTO COASTAL
CAROLINAS SAT.  SFC COLD FRONT PRETTY WELL BOGGED DOWN IN
APPALACHIANS.  SMOKE PLUME MAKING ITS WAY UP SE COAST AND WILL NEED
TO BE ACCOUNTED FOR UNTIL FRONT GETS HERE.

ETA/AVN INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AND IN AGREEMENT.  MAIN DIFFERENCE
FROM LAST RUN IS THAT MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER AND FARTHER N IN
LIFTING UPPER LOW OUT OF WRN GREAT LAKES.  RESULT OVER THE CAROLINAS
IS MORE ZONAL FLOW BY LATE SUN.

ENTIRE CWA IN DAY 1 SLGT RISK.  HOWEVER WITH BEST FORCING REMAINING
N AND W OF AREA WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET MUCH GOING.  ACTIVITY IN
WRN CAROLINAS MAKING LITTLE HEADWAY TOWARD FA.  WILL KEEP CHC POPS
OVERNITE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER NUMBERS INLAND.

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE SAT...AS VORT MAX NOW IN THE
PLAINS SWINGS THRU THE CAROLINAS AND MIGHT ACTUALLY MAKE IT THIS FAR
E.  GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AM HESITANT TO GO LIKELY SO WILL LET HIGH
CHC POPS COVER IT.  BEST CHANCE WILL BE INLAND NC.  WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY AND VORT DAY 2 SVR RISK LOOKS JUSTIFIED.  TEMPS ON LOW
SIDE OF GUIDANCE OWING TO AT LEAST SCT-BKN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
SMOKE.

AFTER THAT VORT SWINGS THRU AREA...ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER VORT TO SWING
THRU THE AREA SUN.  AVN MOST BULLISH WITH THIS VORT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...BUT EVEN IT LOOKS TOO WEAK AND CHANNELED.  THEREFORE WILL
BACK OFF FROM GOING 50 POPS. STILL NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN GETTING A
LOT OF SUNSHINE SO WILL LEAN TOWARD COOLER MAV NUMBERS...EVEN
DISCOUNTING SPURIOUS 72 FOR FLO.

EXTENDED:  COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MON...ALBEIT MORE SLOWLY IN
ZONAL FLOW.  WILL STICK CLOSE TO GOING FCST.  HOWEVER MRF AND EVEN
12Z AVN WANT TO STALL FRONT OUT ACROSS CAROLINAS ON TUE...AND THEN
AVN DEVELOPS SFC LOW ALONG FRONT NEAR CAROLINA COAST.  AM WAY TOO
SUSPICIOUS OF THIS TO PUT POPS INTO TUE JUST YET.  SFC HI BUILDS IN
FROM MIDWEST WED THRU FRI.

CWF: PERSISTENT S TO SW WINDS THRU THE PERIOD...SHOULD REMAIN BLO
SCA CRITERIA WITH SOMEWHAT SLOWER APPROACH OF COLD FRONT.

FCSTID = 35
ILM   63  84  63  81 /  30  50  30  30
LBT   61  83  60  80 /  40  50  30  30
FLO   63  84  62  83 /  40  50  30  30
MYR   65  79  63  79 /  30  40  30  30

.ILM...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

RAS