Hail and Damaging Winds in Florida, May 25, 2001

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2001

CURRENTLY SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST WERE SWEEPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. LATEST
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THAT DEEPEST LAYER MOISTURE WAS SOUTH OF A
CAPE CANAVERAL/TAMPA BAY LINE. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SPORADIC
STRONG SEA BREEZE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA.

DISCUSSION...MODELS VARY LITTLE IN THE OVERALL PICTURE. THE CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE MIDWEST DRIFTS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OR JUST OFFSHORE
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA. AS EACH SHORT WAVE SWEEPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...THE MOISTURE FIELD IS SUPPRESSED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...
ONLY TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS AND SUBTROP HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO REBUILD WEST FROM THE BAHAMAS AND ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW EAST/WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES TO FORM EACH DAY WITH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. INTERACTIONS WITH LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BREEZE WILL PROVIDE FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AVN MOS MAXES WERE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FWC
NUMBERS...WHICH MAKE SENSE SINCE THE WINDS OVER THE CWA WILL HAVE
MAINLY A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.

FORECAST...THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS DO NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH WILL
CHANGE. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES A FUNCTION OF HOW FAR SOUTH OR
NORTH THE BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED. RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF A LITTLE A
SHORT WAVE APROACHES...THEN INCREASE AFTER THE TROUGH HAS CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA AND THERE IS SOME MOISTURE RETURN IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

EXTENDED...THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WAS DOMINATING THE WEATHER EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI MOVES TO EASTERN QUEBEC/MOUTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER BY WEDNESDAY. THE TRAILING END OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA/ALABAMA
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS/WESTERN ATLC BUILDS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. RIDGE AXIS GETS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

MARINE...FRONT SWEEPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOUTHWEST WINDS. FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER SOUTH GA/AL MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...FLORIDA STRAITS AND
GULF OF MEXICO. NO HIGHLIGHTS.

FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CRITICAL RH DURATIONS WILL
NOT BE MET...ALTHOUGH U30S-40S WILL BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. NO HIGHLIGHTS HERE AS WELL.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
DAB BB 067/089 067/089 067 232
MCO BB 068/090 068/090 068 232
MLB BB 073/087 073/088 074 343

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...WIMMER
AVIATION/FIRE WX...CRISTALDI