Damaging Wind in North Carolina, July 8, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2001

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THIS PACKAGE IS WHAT TO DO WITH DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM MCS. CURRENTLY INTENSE CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG H8 AREA
OF CONVERGENCE...OVER SE OH/NRN KY. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS
SYSTEM WELL AS THEY DON/T DEVELOP ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNTIL
AROUND 06Z (INTERESTINGLY ENUF...ABOUT WHERE CONVECTION IS NOW). I
SUPPOSE THIS BATCH COULD DIE OUT...BUT WITH 30 KTS OF SHEAR AND GOES
SOUNDER LIS OF -10 FEEDING IT...I HAVE MY DOUBTS.

SO THE QUESTION IS...WHERE WL IT GO? LAST NGHTS MCS TRACKED JUST
ABOUT ALONG THE -10 DEG C LINE AT H7. TNGT...THE -10 DEG TEMPS HAVE
ALL BUT VANISHED AS THE WORKED OVER AIRMASS HAS LOST A LOT OF THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CHARACTERISTICS OF DAYS PAST. STILL...-8 DEG
TEMP LINE LOOK GOOD TNGT...WHICH PRETTY MUCH TAKES IT RIGHT ACROSS
THE CWA. BY LATE TNGT THE FLOW TURNS ALMOST DUE N...AND WEAKENS
SOME...SO THE SYSTEM PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE ONE LAST
NGHT...BUT CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT SOME STRONG WINDS AS THE MCS
FIRST GETS HERE. THUS...PLAN TO MENTION SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE IN THE
MTN ZONES. W/DIFFULENT THICKNESS PATTERN ALOFT...SOME TRAINING HEAVY
RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE. WON/T ISSUE A FFA DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TRACK OF MCS

WL LOWER TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEG TMRW TO ACCOUNT FOR DEBRIS LEFT OVER
FROM MCS. IF ETA IS RIGHT...MORE CONVECTION MAY FIRE ABOUT DAWN OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER...SHEAR BECOMES MUCH WEAKER TMRW. AND WHAT SHEAR
THERE IS...AN AXIS OF H7 25KT WNDS...RETROGRADE INTO CENTRAL TN AND
NRN AL/GA IN RESPONSE TO HGHT FALLS OVER THE E.

LOW CHANCE POPS MON NGHT AND TUE. W/ONLY WEAK NW FLOW...THESE WL
LIKELY BE MORE OF THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY DRIVEN STUFF.

NCEP CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL FROPA EARLY WED.
LATEST AVN LOOKS AWFULLY WEAK WITH THE FRONT...TO THE POINT THAT NW
FLOW CONVECTION CONTINUES WED AND THU. HOWEVER...WL GO WITH NCEP
IDEA AND IGNORE THE OUTLIER AVN. THUS...DRY WED-FRI...WITH CHANCE
TSRA FRI NGHT-SUN AS SFC BNDRY LIFTS BACK INTO THE REGION.

FCSTID = 14
GSP   71  87  72  92 /k  70  40  30  30
AND   71  87  72  92 /  70  40  30  30
CLT   71  87  72  92 /  60  40  30  30
HKY   70  87  71  90 /  70  40  30  30
AVL   65  82  65  87 /  80  40  30  30

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

MCAVOY

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-090000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
215 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2001

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL MATERIALIZE.

A THICK CLOUD DECK WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUN...AND INSTABILITY...
ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AND MUCH OF
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. UNLESS THE CLOUDS THIN DRAMATICALLY...THE
AREA TO THE EAST OF MARION...RUTHERFORDTON...GAFFNEY...AND CHESTER
HAS A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT BANDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT COUNTIES. LOCATIONS
TO THE EAST OF TAYLORSVILLE...MOORESVILLE...METRO CHARLOTTE...AND
MONROE COULD RECEIVE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WILL BE THE AREA ROUGHLY TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM
BRYSON CITY AND FRANKLIN TO SENECA...ANDERSON...AND GREENWOOD...
WHERE THE THINNER CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW MORE HEATING. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.

DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. IF THE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER...
THEY COULD MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 7 PM OR SO...WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

MOORE