Hail and Damaging Winds in Kentucky, July 8, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO REMOVE TSTMS WEST TODAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2001

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE HEAT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST CENTRAL KY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING
STRONG ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...WAVES CONTINUE TO PUSH
ALONG THE OUTER EDGES OF THIS RIDGE. ONE WAVE APPEARS TO BE PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF IL AND IN. THIS WAVE IS HELPING
TRIGGER A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN OHIO. WEST OF THAT
COMPLEX...LAPS DATA SHOWS THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LATEST LOOK AT THE KIND RADAR LOOP
SHOWS SOME ACTIVITY TRY TO GET GOING. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT
AREA SINCE THE ETA IS TRYING TO SHOW THIS CAP WEAKENING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWFA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. ETA LLJ LOOKS PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AS WELL WITH 35 TO 40 KTS FEEDING THIS JUICY AIR MASS
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. ETA/AVN ARE IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING
THIS COMPLEX SOUTH OF OUR CWFA BY AFTERNOON WITH SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS LINGERING. FURTHER WEST...WE ARE LOOKING AT MOSTLY
SUNNY AND HUMID CONDTIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 90S.
IN FACT...WE ARE PLANNING ON GOING WITH A HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY WHERE HI'S WILL RANGE BETWEEN 105 AND 110. NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL JUST ADVERTISE HEAT INDICES IN THE
ZONES. FWC/FAN TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT
DISPUTE THOSE NUMBERS SINCE THEY WERE ON THE MONEY YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT THE ETA/AVN ARE IN AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN IN BRINGING ANOTHER
WAVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. LLJ DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG...BUT WITH
GOOD INSTABILITY AND A SOMEWHAT WEAKER CAP IN PLACE WE WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN LOOK TO BE IN THE BALL PARK...BUT WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
A LITTLE MORE IN BWG AREA SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MORE OF THE SAME AS THE SFC
TROF REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL CAP DOES SHOW
SOME WEAKENING OVER TIME WHICH MAY HELP TRIGGER MORE CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST IN CENTRAL AND SC KY.

.SDF...HEAT ADVI7SORY FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY TODAY
AND TONIGHT

COX