Hail in Nebraska, June 26, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
315 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2001

TSTM CHCS REMAIN MAIN FCST CONCERN THRU WED.  NGM AND AVN CONTD TO
OVERFCST PCPN ALNG AND AHD OF BNDRY IN SE SD/NRN NEBRASKA.  00Z RUNS
FM ETA/MESOETA HAVE BACKED OFF PCPN FCST OVER THAT AREA AND FOR OAX
CWA COMPARED TO YDAS RUNS AND WL GENERALLY BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

SHORT TERM...CONVECTION CONTS IN SWRN/PARTS OF CNTRL NEBRASKA IN
HIGHER 925-700 MB THETA E AIR.  WITH LOW LVL JET VEERING THIS
MORNING...AND ACCAS CONTINUING TO DVLP AHEAD OF FNT IN EXTREME NERN
NEBR/NWRN IA...COULD SEE CONVECTION DVLPG THIS MORNING IN BEST THETA
E ADVCTN NRN ZONES AND WILL CONT HIGHEST POPS THERE.  WITH UPPER
LEVEL WINDS EITHER FCST TO BECOME LIGHT AND VRBL OR NNERLY WOULD
LOOK FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DVLP THIS MORNING TO BECOME
ANCHORED OR OBTAIN A SLIGHT SWWD DRIFT AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
ECNTRL/SERN ZONES WOULD HAVE THE LOWEST POPS TDA.  THAT'S ASSUMING
DVLPMNT ON NWRN FLANK OF UPR LOW TO OUR SE STAYS SE OF NEBR/SWRN
IA...WHICH IT SHOULD TDA.  SO OVERALL LEFT POPS FAIRLY HIGH NWRN
ZONES BUT TRIMMED SLIGHTLY ELSEWHERE.  MORE CLOUDS AND MORE OF A SE
COMPONENT TO WINDS SHOULD KNOCK SVRL DEGREES OFF HIGHS FM MONDAY...
SPCLY NWRN ZONES.  SFC FNT COULD APPROACH FAR NWRN ZONES THIS AFTN
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SFC WINDS SERLY THERE THIS AFTN.

FOR TNGT...AS LOW JET AGAIN VEERS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION BEST
THETA E ADVCTN SHIFTS NW AWAY FROM FCST AREA.  WITH SFC FNT LIKELY
ALSO STALLING OR LIFTING N AND BASICALLY OUT OF OUR PICTURE...PCPN
LOOKS LESS LIKELY AND WILL TRIM POPS A LTL.  GUID LOWS LOOK OK FOR
FIRST GUESS...GENERALLY A LTL COOLER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

WED...MOISTURE BECOMES A LTL DEEPER OVR FCST AREA WITH 850 MB DWPT
RIDGE ACRS AREA.  700 MB TEMPS ALSO COOL SLIGHTLY WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING CAP WEAKENING.  HOWEVER...INTO LATE AFTN LOWER
THETA E AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...AREA WL LACK A LOW LVL
BOUNDARY AND OVERALL INSTABILITY DECREASES...I.E. BECOMES A LTL MORE
STABLE.  THUS...WILL DROP POPS E/NERN ZONES AND LOWER A LTL NW. WL
LEAVE SLGT CHC IN FAR SE AS UPR LOW TO OUR SE WL CONT TO MOVE TWD
THAT AREA. TEMPS COULD BE A DEG OR TWO WARMER WED DESPITE 850 MB
TEMPS THE SAME OR A DEG OR SO COOLER BECAUSE OF MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  BUT WL GENERALLY RUN A PERSISTENCE FCST.  WILL LEAVE POPS
IN ALL AREAS WED NGT AS LOW LVL JET WL BE ADVECTING A LTL BETTER
THETA E AIR INTO REGION AGAIN...BUT MAINLY IN SLGT CHC CATEGORY.

WITH UPR LOW TO APPROACH SERN NEBR THU WL INTRODUCE A SLGT CHC OF
TSTMS THERE.  WL LEAVE OUT OF OTHER ZONES THU AND ALL ZONES FRI.
MRF/ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT A LTL HIGHER TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

.OMA...NONE
CHERMOK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....s

0450 AM    WAKEFIELD                 NE   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/26/01   WAYNE                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-261700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
540 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2001

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE NEEDED THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF LINE
FROM COLUMBUS NEBRASKA TO ONAWA IOWA.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING IN AN AREA OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THAT
AREA.  LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH
SINCE THEY WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
OCCUR.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.  WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH 85 TO
90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THAT AREA...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD AGAIN DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND LARGE
HAIL WOULD AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL JET TO
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE EVENING.

CHERMOK