Hail in Nebraska, July 2, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO READ MRR INSTEAD OF NLG
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE                PROFILER..
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2001

THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH TUE IS MAIN FCST CONCERN THIS PD.
ALTHOUGH QPF PLACEMENTS FROM THE MODELS DIFFER...GENERAL TREND OF
LIFTING FRONT BACK NE OF FCST AREA ON MON IS SHARED BY ETA/NGM AND
AVN.

SHORT TERM...THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ADVCTN AROUND 700 MB THAT
WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING THE MCS THAT MOVD INTO NWRN CWA
AROUND 17Z APPARENTLY WAS WEAKENING AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS WAS DISIPTG.  CONVECTION WAS NOW BECOMING ROOTED A LTL
LOWER IN THE AMS AND NW OF CWA FM NCNTRL NEBR INTO SD.  THIS WAS
INDICATED BY VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WINDS ON MRR PROFILER AROUND
AND JUST ABV 850 MB.  850 MB JET OF 50 KTS THEN FCST FM MESOETA IN
NCNTRL NEBR BY 09Z.  MEAN FLOW SHOULD CONT TO ALLOW ACTIVITY TO MOV
SE LATER TNGT...SPCLY AS THE LOW LVL JET VEERS.  NET EFFECT WILL
PRBLY BE FOR MOST OF THE CONVECTION TNGT TO FALL OVR THE NRN 1/2 OF
CWA.  WITH LEAD MCS WEAKENING WILL WAIT UNTIL LAST MINUTE TO HANDLE
EVENING WORDING OF ACTIVITY S OF NERN NEBR...BUT WL PRBLY JUST WORD
IT OCNL/SCT N.  SMALLEST POPS LOOK BEST FAR S AS MAIN LIFT/FOCUS
APPEARS IT WL BE MOSTLY TO THE NORTH.  TDAS PCPN HAS KEPT TEMPS ON
COOL SIDE FAR N SO WL HAVE TO LOWER LOWS A LTL...SPCLY N.

FOR MON...WITH ALL MODELS AGREEING THAT FRONT SHOULD SET UP NE OF
FCST AREA...WL NOT CHANGE PREV FCST HIGHS TOO MUCH.  THEY WERE MORE
IN LINE WITH NGM MOS INSTEAD OF THE COOLER FAN/MAV.  AFTER ANY
MORNING DEBRIS PCPN...BEST CHC OF AFTN CONVECTION APPEARS IT WL BE
NE OF FCST AREA OR ACRS WRN HIGH PLAINS.  NEVERTHELESS...WL LEAVE
SMALL POPS IN ABOUT 100 MILES FTHR SW THAN MODELS FCST FRONTAL PSN
IN CASE CONVECTION TNGT ANCHORS BNDRY FTHR TO THE SW.

MON NGT/TUE...WK FNT REENTERS NWRN ZONES BY 12Z TUE PRBLY GIVING
THAT LOCATION THE GREATEST CHC OF CONVECTION.  ALTHO STILL CAN'T
RULE OUT PSBL CONVECTION OVR ECNTRL/NERN ZONES IN CASE WRMFNT RMNS A
LTL FTHR TO THE SW.  WL DROP PCPN CHCS SERN NEBR FOR NOW MON NGT.
TUE THE WEAK FNT WORKS SE ACRS FCST AREA AND ATTEMPTS TO WASH OUT.
BNDRY IS WORTH SMALL POPS AREAWIDE AND MAV/FWC ARE IN AGREEMENT AND
LOOK OK FOR FIRST GUESS.

.OMA...NONE
CHERMOK