Strong Wind in Massachusetts, February 11, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1210 PM EST SUN FEB 11 2001

...NUMEROUS WINTRY WX EVENTS IN RAMBUNCTIOUS JET FROM LAX TO CC
NEXT WEEK OR SO...

WIND ADVY: NPW FOR NH 12 BOS-MQE AND PVC THRU 4 PM. MARGINAL ADVY BUT
           IN BEST MXG WITH CONTD MDT TO STG CAA SHUD TRANSFER REAL
           GOOD AT TIMES THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SAW SUSTAINED NEAR
           30 KTS AT CON AND PVC ABT 14Z.

TEMPS THIS AFTN: MWN WB -22...AT BEST 25F AT BOS..BDL IN
                 STRAIGHT OUT SOUNDING. MAYBE 27F PVD.

WIND CHILL: CONSIDERING -25 WIND CHILL ADVY FOR BOS-MQE AND PVC
            TNGT. MORE IN THE AFTN PKG. HAVE BEEN IN -15-25 RANGE
            SINCE ABOUT DAWN. BLV WE HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT HITTING
            -25 TO -30 FOR 3 HOURS IN BOS-PVC REGION AS LAST
            BURST STG CAA DRIVES THE MERCURY DOWN INTO THE TEENS
            BY 01Z ALONG WITH SUSTAINED WIND OF 20-25 MPH.

MON NIGHT: WHILE ETA BIAS TYPICALLY OVERDONE ON NC COASTAL LOW
           IN FLAT WLY 5H FLOW...EC/AVN/ETA ALL HAVE INVERTED TROF
           AND DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVR THE CURRENTLY VERY COLD
           AIRMASS IN OUR AREA. HAVE UPPED POPS ALL AREAS WITH SPCL
           ATTN TO REGION BOS-BDL SEWD. CURRENTLY THINKING 1-3"
           SNOWFALL IN 6-9 HR PRD BUT MAY NEED TO THINK ISO 4"
           SOMEWHERE RI/SE MA. IT SHUD B A PRETTY SNOW FOR EARLY TUE
           MORNING RISERS...LAYING OUT ON ALL SFCS WITH LITTLE WIND.
           OF NOTE IS THE 2 SUCCESSIVE 6 HR PRDS OF SIGNIFICANT UVM
           FCST FOR BOS-PVD-CC REGION MON NITE.

LAF: WILL LOOK AT ETA LAGGED AVG FCST MIDDAY PRODUCTS TO ASSIST MON
     NITE DETERMINATION AND ALSO CK THE ETAX TREND (APPARENT BETTER
     SST ANALYSIS).

TUE: CLEARING AND MILDER.

WED: DEBATE ON MRF ENSEMBLES BEING CORRECT OR THE WEAKER EURO
     MODELS. BOTTOM LINE...ANY QPF EVENT APPEARS LIKELY SOMETIME
     LATE WED. THAT ONE MAY B MORE MXD OR WET?

THU: A BREAK AS A COLD CANADIAN HIGH BANKS UP TO OUR NORTH.

FRI OR SAT: STILL LOOKS LIKE A SUBSTANTIVE EVENT COMING UP FROM
            DIXIE. PTYPE MXD? DEPENDS ON TRACK. BOTTOM LINE
            STRONG THKNS GRAD AND SRN VT MAX SOURCE MVG NEWD SHUD
            PROVIDE MDT OR GREATER QPF EVENT. TRACK MAKES PTYPE
            UNCERTAIN. LOOKS TO ME LIKE 1 WFRONTAL WAVE OUT S OF NEW
            ENG WITH 5H PRIMARY SFC LOW ST LAWR VLY.

LR: BLV ODDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE NEXT WEEK FOR SOMEWHAT COLDER
    EVENTS AND LESS CHC INSIDE RUNNERS AS PNA GOES NEUTRAL FROM ITS
    STRONG NEG PHASE. CONSIDERING THE CURRENT STG +PNA AND WEAK NEG
    NAO..COLDEST AIRMASS TO INVADE SNE SINCE 1/10 (NON RADIATIONAL
    COOLING) HAS APPARENTLY HIT US TODAY. PLENTY FROM WHENCE THAT
    CAME AND SO ODDS SHUD BCM MORE FAV. WEEK TWOS FOR ALMOST A WEEK
    CONT DVLPG A SRN STREAM STM TRACK ROUGHLY SOMEWHERE BHM TO GBNK.
    THE RDG ON CANADIAN W COAST NOT QUITE FAR ENOUGH E TO DO MAJOR
    WINTER STORM DAMAGE HERE BUT NAO MAY EVENTUALLY GO NEG AGAIN
    ...NOT FAR FROM NEUTRAL NOW.  NOTICING A TREND TO STG 5H
    RETROGRESSIVE RDG DVLPG W EUROPE NEXT WEEK. HOW THAT EVOLVES
    BEYOND?

YDY: PNS AND LSR ISSUED ON WIND ADVY WITH HIGH WIND CRITERIA MUCH
     OF CENTRAL AND NE MA AND S NH. WE CONT TO SEEK ANY DAMAGE
     REPORTS (TREE LIMBS/WIRES/POWER OUTAGES) VIA THE MEDIA AND
     METS FOM HFD NWD ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKS.

AN AREA THAT DID NOT REALLY APPARENTLY BLOW AS STRONG AS EXPECTED WAS
RI-ACK.

.BOX...GALE ALL CSTL WATERS.
       WIND ADVY FOR MOST LIKELY REGION TO VERIFY WHICH IS NH 12
       MA 15 16 (BOSTON BLUE HILL) AND CAPE COD (PVC)

DRAG