Damaging Wind in Maryland, May 22, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
615 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2001

AFT COORD WITH SPC WE WILL BE REMOVING THE NJ CTYS FROM THE SVR TSTM
WATCH. MARINE INFLUENCE AND SETTING SUN HAS ENDED THE RISK OF SVR WX
THERE...ALTHO HVY RAIN PTNL CONTS.

PREV AFD *********************************************************

SVR WX WATCH IN EFFECT FOR OUR SRN ZNS AND THIS IS A BEST FIT UNDER
CUR CONDS. WK LO PRES HAS DVLPD ALG WRMFNT IN OUR CSTL WTRS AND HAS
KEPT EITHER AN ONSR FLOW GOING IN NRN ZNS OR A WK WRLY FLOW NR PHL
THAT HAS KEPT THE LO CLDS IN. DEBRIS FROM DVLPG CONVECTION TO OUR W
IS ABT TO OVERSPREAD OUR WRN ZNS AND DON/T SEE THE NRN HALF OF OUR
CWA BREAKING OUT.

CAPES IN VA HAVE ROCKETED TO OVR 2000J AND THIS IS SFCNT BUOYANCY TO
FIRE THE STORMS. LI AND STAB NOT AS IMPRESSIVE OVR OUR SRN ZNS...BUT
THEY ARE IN THE SUNSHINE AND WILL HAVE A CHC TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. FCSTD HEL VALUES HAVE DROPPED BLO THRESHOLD
FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT CAPES HAVE MORE THAN MADE UP THE DIF WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT NOW APRS TO BE HI WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CAPE/STAB
PRECIPITOUSLY DROP N OF THE MASON/DIXON LINE...SO DON/T EXPECT A NWD
EXTENSION.

BUT...EXCESSIVE PCPN CHECKLIST GAVE US A 5/6...WHICH NEARLY
GUARANTEES 2 INCH RAINS. FORTUNATELY ITS BEEN DRY THE LAST MONTH AND
FFG VALUES EVEN WITH THIS MRNG/S RAIN ARE STILL AOA 2 IN/HR.
OBVIUOSLY WE/LL CONT THE HVY PCPN WORDING. LLJ RMNS S ACRS OUR SWA
B4 PIVOTING TO THE SE AND LINGERING FTHR TO THE N. THIS S/B
PROGRESSIVE ENUF TO PREVENT ANY STREAM/RIVER FLOODING BARRING
TRAINING.

REST OF THE FCST HAS NOT CHGD MUCH. WE LIKED LAST NGT/S IDEA OF
GOING WITH THE SLOEST MDL SOLN (WHICH LEANS TWD THE NGM) GIVEN THE
NON PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CLSD LOW FROM JUPITER OVR WI. THUS
WE/LL LINGER THE PCPN INTO WED MRNG ACRS OUR NRN ZNS AND USE LIKELY
POPS WELL N. WON/T MNTN ANY THUNDER AS STAB INDICES BY MRNG ARE
STABLE.

BEYOND THAT FCST AREA AND ERN U.S. RMNS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALF...BUT
SPOKES OF PVA ARE FCSTD TO RMN W OF US AND DEEP MSTR FCSTD TO RMN E
OF US. THUS AT LEAST 1.5 DAYS OF FAIR WX B4 SYS EVENTUALLY SLIDES E
OR DIES A VERY SLOW DEATH OVR THE GRTLKS.

WILL ADJUST FCST MAX TEMPS BASED ON H8 TEMPS AND ACCEPT GUID MINS
LEANING TWD WRMR TEMPS TNGT AND COOLER MINS FOR WED NGT.

MAR: NO PBLMS. TIDAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO HI WITH DEPTS THRUT THIS
WEEK AND EVEN WITH HI ASTRON TIDES...ONLY MOST VULNERABLE LOCNS
WILL COME CLS TO MINOR TIDAL LVLS TNGT AND WED NGT.

ZONES OUT LATE.

.PHI...NONE.

TFG

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021>025-230000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 274 NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
630 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 800 PM FOR DELAWARE AND THE
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SALEM...CUMBERLAND ATLANTIC AND
CAPE MAY COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION HAVE PREVENTED THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR FROM
MOVING INTO NEW JERSEY. WHILE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING...THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BUT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM
FOR THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND DELAWARE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE WATCH AREA THROUGH 8 PM AND BE ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG WIND GUSTS...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. THE GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE FOR SUSSEX COUNTY
DELAWARE AND CAROLINE AND TALBOT COUNTIES IN MARYLAND.

THE WATCH STILL INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES.

IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CECIL...KENT...QUEEN ANNE/S...TALBOT AND
CAROLINE.

IN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE...KENT AND SUSSEX.

TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

IF YOU OBSERVE THREATENING WEATHER...SEEK SHELTER AT ONCE.

GIGI

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-230300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - TORNADO WATCH 277...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
725 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2001

CORRECTED FOR ZONE CODING.

...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 1100 PM FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST MARYLAND...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND AND NEW
CASTLE COUNTY DELAWARE HAS BEEN CANCELLED. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION HAVE PREVENTED THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR FROM
MOVING INTO NORTHERN DELMARVA. WHILE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE LATER THIS
EVENING...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE AND DELAWARE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO A TORNADO WATCH. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.

TORNADO WATCH 277 IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES UNTIL
1100 PM.

IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...KENT...QUEEN ANNE/S...TALBOT AND CAROLINE.

IN DELAWARE...KENT AND SUSSEX.

TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IF YOU OBSERVE THREATENING WEATHER...SEEK SHELTER AT ONCE.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

JAQ

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021>025-230300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - TORNADO WATCH 277
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
725 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2001

...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 1100 PM FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST MARYLAND...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND AND NEW
CASTLE COUNTY DELAWARE HAS BEEN CANCELLED. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION HAVE PREVENTED THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR FROM
MOVING INTO NORTHERN DELMARVA. WHILE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE LATER THIS
EVENING...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE AND DELAWARE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO A TORNADO WATCH. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.

TORNADO WATCH 277 IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES UNTIL
1100 PM.

IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...KENT...QUEEN ANNE/S...TALBOT AND CAROLINE.

IN DELAWARE...KENT AND SUSSEX.

TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IF YOU OBSERVE THREATENING WEATHER...SEEK SHELTER AT ONCE.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

JAQ