Hail and Damaging Winds in Iowa, July 8, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
245 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2001

AMPLIFYING UA PATTERN TO USHER IN COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BY MIDWEEK.
IN THE TRANSITION...WILL HAVE TO BE CONCERNED WITH TSRA POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL ALSO
HAVE TO DEAL WITH HEAT RELATED ISSUES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH TODAY.

AT 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM KSQI
TO NR KDSM TO KOMA.  HIGH DEWPOINTS ARE POOLED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOW ANOTHER MCS OVER WESTERN NE TRACKING
EAST...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

WITH AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER WESTERN U.S. FORCING SLIGHTLY COOLER
MID LEVEL TEMPS SOUTH INTO CWA...STRONG CAP SHOULD WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN CWA.  THE WEAKER CAP
AND S/W EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROUNDING RIDGE WILL
ARE SUFFICIENT REASONS TO GO WITH WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY...OR
OVER ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
SOUTH WITH CAP STILL IN PLACE.  WILL ALSO CONTINUE HEAT ADVISORY
FOR TODAY FOR THE SAME AREA.   TEMP FORECAST TODAY A LITTLE TRICKY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER H850 TEMPS...LESS SURFACE WIND FOR MIXING AND
MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM DECAYING MCS KEEPING TEMPS FROM SURPASSING
SATURDAYS HIGHS. WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE TODAY FOR HIGHS.  DEWPOINTS
SHOULD ALSO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY...BUT LESS WIND TO
PROVIDE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO MONDAY...A LITTLE COOLER AND DRIER AIR SAGGING
SOUTH AS SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO MO.  MAV NUMBERS LOOK
REASONABLE.  WITH BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF CWA WILL CONTINUE LOW
CHANCE POPS SOUTH HALF.

NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED FOR THE EXTENDED WITH CURRENT FORECAST
HANDLING ONSET OF COOLER AIRMASS FOR MID WEEK.  DRY FORECAST TUESDAY
CENTRAL AND NORTH MAY HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT WITH AVN GENERATING SOME
QPF ALONG BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LET
DAY SHIFT LOOK AT ANOTHER RUN TO ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL.

DVN...
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.
IL...HEAT ADV,ISORY FOR TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR SCOTLAND AND CLARK COUNTIES.

DLF

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-082300-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
503 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2001

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA
AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
...THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS...

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34.   AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S WILL CREATE HEAT INDICES OF
105 TO 110. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE FROM THE I80 CORRIDOR
NORTH.  HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND
90...KEEPING HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE.

A NARROW LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST EAST OF CEDAR RAPIDS TO
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE QUAD CITIES WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EARLY THIS MORNING.   RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE THE STORMS WEAKEN BY MID
MORNING.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OTTUMWA THROUGH
WAPELLO TO GALESBURG.  SOUTH OF THIS LINE...WARM AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPRESS MOST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE GREATEST THREATS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. ISOLATED RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG INTERSTATE 80 WAS THE DIVIDING LINE
BETWEEN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH AND NOT QUITE AS HOT...
BUT STILL UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH.  THIS BOUNDARY WAS
ALSO ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR THIS MORNINGS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.   BY LATE TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL START TO SAG SOUTH
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE HUMID NORTH OF THE FRONT ON
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THOSE EXPERIENCE
TODAY.  ALSO...WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH...POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

DLF

IAZ068-ILZ015-081530-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
957 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2001

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SCOTT AND ROCK ISLAND
COUNTIES ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM...

AT 955 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO NORTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTY AND UPPER ROCK
ISLAND COUNTY...AND WEAKENED. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
MINOR FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED...THUS THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BRING
MORE HEAVY RAIN. IF YOU LIVE IN SCOTT OR ROCK ISLAND COUNTIES...
ESPECIALLY IN DIXON...NEW LIBERTY...PLAINVIEW...DONAHUE...WALCOTT
DAVENPORT...AND EAST OF FOLLETTS...REMAIN ALERT ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE
IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES THAT BETWEEN 1 AND
3 INCHES OF RAIN FELL I]N MANY OF THESE LOCATIONS. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN WOULD INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

MCCLURE