Hail and Damaging Winds in Indiana, June 5, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
220 PM EST TUE JUN 5 2001

TIMING AND CVRG OF TRW'S WL BE A DEFINITE CHALLENGE THROUGH THE FIRST
48 HRS AS MODELS ARE HAVING PROBS PINNING DOWN SFC WV POSITION THAT
WL RIDE ALONG THE WARM FNT SOMETIME WED TO WED NGT. RNGL LOOP WAS
SHOWING TRW'S BEGINNING TO POP ACRS SCNTRL IL IN AREA OF SFC CNVRG ON
THE NOSE OF A MODEST 30 KT LOW LVL JET. MEANWHILE...AN OUTFLOW BNDRY
FM A LINE OF TRW'S FM FWA-LAF WAS DROPPING SE ACRS NW ZONES AND
INTO CNTRL IL. SFC ANLYS HAD THE PERSISTANT WARM FNT LIFTING SLOWLY
NWD TO JUST S OF IND WITH WK SFC WVS LOCATED JUST N OF STL...NEAR CID
AND A FINAL ONE NEAR TOP. UA PATTERN HAD A SMALL AMPLITUDE RIDGE
JUST E OF THE FA AND A TROF ACRS THE PLAINS. VSBL PIX/SFC OBS KEEPING
THICK CLDS ACRS THE FA EXCEPT A FEW BREAKS FAR SRN ZONES.

MODELS ALL BRING A WK S/W ACRS TNGT WHICH SHOULD...ALONG WITH CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS...THE WARM FNT AND OUTFLOW BNDRY NEARBY AND A LOW LVL JET
NOSING IN...AID IN TRIGGER NUMEROUS TRW'S. BEST POPS NRN ZONES AHEAD
OF THE WARM FNT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS AND COINCIDING
WITH BEST LIFT/DEEPER MOIST AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPR JET.
COULD BE A FEW LG HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND PRODUCERS MAINLY THIS EVE AS
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES FM 1000-1500 J/KG STRETCH ACRS THE
FA. AVN IS THE FASTEST MOVING A SFC WV/CD FNT SE OF THE FA AS IT
MOVES THE SFC LOW TO JUST W OF SEYMOUR BY WED AFT. CONVERSLY...THE
NGM HAS IT WELL N AND W ACRS NRN MO AND THE ETA HAS IT NEAR MIE. WITH
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS...WL GO WITH MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ETA
WHICH WOULD IMPLY OCCASIONAL POPS ON WED WITH CHC POPS WED NGT MAINLY
IN THE EVE AND SMALLEST POPS ACRS NWRN ZONES BEHIND THE CD FNT. AVN
TIME SECS SHOW NICE MID LVL DRYING BEHIND THE FNT WED NGT BUT KEEPS
SOME LOW LVL MOIST BEHIND. BY THU...HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BUT SOME
LINGERING LOW LVL MOIST AND CD H8 AIR WL ALLOW FOR SOME DAYTIME CU.
SO PARTLY CLOUDY LOOKS GOOD FOR THEN.

MOS TEMPS LOOK GOOD TNGT CONSIDERING CURRENT DEW PTS AND WARM FNT
EXPECTED TO BE JUST N OF THE AREA. MOS NUMBERS AGAIN LOOK GOOD
TOMORROW BASED ON UNCHANGED AIRMASS AND EXPECTED CLD CVR. WL LEAN A
LITTLE ON THE LOW SIDE...HOWEVER. PREFER A COMPROMISE BETWEEN WARMER
FWC AND COOLER AVN WED NGT AS ETA MODEL PREFERRED OVR AVN AND NGM.
FINALLY...THU'S NUMBERS CLOSE AND APPEAR REASONABLE ASSUMING WE WILL
GET AT LEAST A LITTLE SS.

.IND...NONE.
KOCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 PM EST TUE JUN 5 2001

INZ070>072-052230-
JACKSON-JENNINGS-LAWRENCE-
425 PM EST TUE JUN 5 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SEYMOUR TO BEDFORD WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 5 PM EST. THE STORMS
WILL REACH BROWNSTOWN AND NORTH VERNON IN BETWEEN 430 AND 500 PM.
SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

INZ052-053-061-062-067>069-052230-
CLAY-DAVIESS-GREENE-KNOX-MARTIN-MONROE-OWEN-
425 PM EST TUE JUN 5 2001

STRONG STORMS WERE SCATTERED FROM WORTHINGTON TO VINCENNES. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH AND REACH
SPENCER AND BLOOMFIELD IN BETWEEN 430 AND 500 PM. SMALL HAIL...
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS.

KOCH