Hail and Damaging Winds in Indiana, April 9 to 10, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
300 PM EST MON APR 9 2001

MID-MS TO LWR OH VLY RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING THIS AFT WITH 18Z MSAS LI
TO M6-8C...LAPS CAPES TO 2400 J/KG. INCRSG INSTABILITY WITH SVRL AM
CONVECTION OUTFLOW BNDRIES S OF FA FOR CONVECTION TO FOCUS ON THIS
EVE/TONIGHT. WLCI3 925MB WIND FIELD HAS BACKED AND INCREASED TO
20-25KT SWRLY. ETA/RUC40 INDICATING CONV ACRS NRN FA WL BE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED. 1000-850MB MFLUX CONVG MAX ACRS SRN FA BY 00Z. WL
CONCENTRATE LKLY POPS WITH STRONG WORDING IN SRN FA WITH STRONG
STORM WORDING TO HI CHC SCT POPS SHRA/TSRA MI ZNS.

IN LONGER TERM NGM SEEMS TO WEAKEN LEAD DAKOTAS WAVE TO QUICK AS IT
LIFTS INTO UPR GRTLKS. ALSO NOTING NCEP CONCERNS WITH NGM HANDLING
OF THE NEXT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF INTRMTN REGION...HAVE LEANED TO
ETA/AVN SOLN. CONTD LLVL CONVG NEXT FEW DAYS WL NECESSITATE CONT
POPS THROUGH DY3 SPCLY SRN FA. MISFWA IN A FEW.

.IWX...NONE.
PBM

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-100600-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1240 PM EST MON APR 9 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER PARTS
OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

A WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO
OUR REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAIL TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. THE RISK AREA IS GREATER ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE
30.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MURPHY