Tornado and Hail in Ohio, April 9, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1210 AM EDT MON APR 9 2001

UPDATED TO CORRECT THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

345 FCST DISCUSSION
BLV TREND OF CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING.  IN GNRL UPPR RDG
TO RMN IN PLACE ACRS FA THRU NEXT 48 HRS SHARPENING A BIT IN THE 48
TO 60 HR PD AS AN UPPR LOW DPNS IN THE CNTRL PLAINS.  WHILE FAIRLY
LOW MOS POP NUMBERS (XPC FOR TDA) REFLECT UPPR RDG ACRS CWA...SFC
PTTN WITH STNRY/WARM/COLD FRONT IN THE VCNTY TDA THRU WED IN MOIST
AMS SUGGEST MORE PCPN POTENTIAL.

FOR TDA MCS NOW OVR ERN IA DRIVEN BY WK DYNAMICS AND STG UNSTBL
850MB INFLOW OVR STNRY FNT THAT EXTENDS FM NRN OH THRU IA.  TSTMS
ALSO FIRING ON BNDRY ACRS CWA ATTM FM KPIT VCNTY TO KTOL VCNTY.  MCS
HAS EXPANDED NE ALTHOUGH GENERATION POINT FOR CONVECTION REMAINS IN
IA ATTM.  THE LINE ACRS CWA IS MOVG NE.  850 OVRRNG AND CONVERGENCE
FCST TO WKN AS FLOW TURN MORE WLY BY 12Z.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW DYING
MCS A MORE ELY PROGRESSION TWRD CWA THRU THE MORNING.  ASOCD VORT
LKLY TO TRIGGER MROE CONVECTION ACRS AREA THIS AFTN.  FOR TNGT CWA
ON BACK SIDE OF DYNAMICS ALTHOUGH SFC LOW FCST OVR ERN IA FCST TO
MOVE EAST TO NORTH ERN IND ALONG STNRY FCST BY 12Z TUES. ETA SHOWS
MORE POOLING OF INSTBY TO OUR WEST (LI'S -8 TO -10) AND WITH BETTER
850 OVRRNG OF BNDRY AGAIN...HELPD BY LOW...ANOTHER MCS IS PSBL WITCH
COULD REACH INTO THE CWA OVRNGT.  AGN...GVN THIS WILL BOOST POPS FM
MOS NUMBERS.   WL NEED TO CONT HIGH CHC POPS ON TUES AS LOW MOVES
ACRS CWA ALG STNRY FRONT IN MOIST AMS.

CLE...
OH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OHIO.
PA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PA003

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-100000-
PAZ001>003-100000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
730 AM EDT MON APR 9 2001

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA SAYS THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH COLLIDES WITH THE
BOUNDARY.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER AND HAIL...DIME SIZE OR LARGER.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR AT TIMES CAUSING LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATERS ON ROADWAYS.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD MONITOR
LATER FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

TK