Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, April 9, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
200 PM EDT MON APR 9 2001

AFTER COORD WITH SPC...WILL CANCEL THE WATCH EAST OF COLUMBUS WITH
ISSUANCE OF AFTERNOON PACKAGE. S/W SPINNING UP CONVECTION AND
ENHANCING CELLS ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT IS ALMOST THROUGH CWA JUST
SCREAMS EASTWARD TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VERY WEAK H5 RIDGE OVER ERN U.S. SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH NEXT
2 DAYS...AS LOW OVER THE ROCKIES DEEPENS AND CUTS OFF ANY STEERING
OR KICKING MECHANISMS. LOW STARTS TO EJECT ON THURSDAY AND SPINS UP
STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IN NRN PLAINS...ENHANCING H5 RIDGE IN THE EAST
AND ALLOWING IT TO START MOVING EWD. PROBLEM IN NEXT DAY OR TWO IS
LOCATION OF STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NRN OH. MODELS
DROP BOUNDARY S TONIGHT AND THEN KICK IT BACK TO THE NORTH IN FAIRLY
UNIFORM SW FLOW.

WITH PLACEMENT OF SFC BOUNDARY IN NRN HALF OF FCST AREA TONIGHT AND
COUPLED NOSE OF WEAK H8 JET AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...MCS SHOULD
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN CNTL IN WITH ENHANCED PRECIP BANDS DUE TO S/W'S
MOVING THROUGH NRN CWA. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR NRN HALF OF
FCST AREA AND QUICKLY CUT THEM TO LOW CHANCE IN KY. COULD SEE LITTLE
TO NO PRECIP S OF OH RIVER...BUT OUTFLOWS MOVING S AND SE FROM SFC
FRONT COULD SPARK CONVECTION ALMOST ANYWHERE IN CWA. WEAKENING OF
CAP AND MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLD SVR...WITH
MAIN THREAT OCCURRING WHEREVER OUTFLOWS SET UP.

AS BOUNDARY LIFTS N ON TUES...ANOTHER MCS COULD BE IN THE WORKS FOR
THE EVENING PERIOD FOR NRN 1/2 OF F.A.  IN A NUTSHELL...LOOKS LIKE
MORE OF THE SAME FOR MUCH OF CWA WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
OCCURRING IN LATE PM AND EARLY EVENING. CONVERGENT BOUNDARY THAT
LOOKS LIKE A CDFNT TO PUSH THROUGH F.A. EARLY ON THURS LOOKS TO SET
UP ANOTHER BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS SFC AND H5 LOWS EJECT
NEWD INTO CANADA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AS MODELS GO...LIKE THE MAV'S NUMBERS ON TEMPS AND WILL ERR ON THE
WARM SIDE EVEN HERE...ESP AT NIGHT. SFC AND H5 FIELDS SHOWING MINOR
DIFFERENCES BETWEEEN ETA AND AVN...WILL RUN WITH AVN AS IT SEEMS TO
HAVE A GOOD CONSISTENCY. ETA PRECIP FIELDS LOOK MORfE IN LINE WITH
CURRENT THINKING AS OPPOSED TO USUAL BROAD PATTERN OF AVN.

.ILN...SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH #105 UNTIL ISSUANCE OF ZONES AROUND
330 FOR FAIRFIELD AND LICKING COUNTIES.

FRANKS

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-092100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1142 AM EDT MON APR 9 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM FOR AREAS
NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS...

THE OHIO VALLEY IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THIS IS DUE TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS DRAPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. ENERGY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH
NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO...WHICH WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP. ALSO...INTERACTING OUTFLOWS MOVING SOUTHEAST COULD SPARK
NEW STORMS TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING QUICKLY SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
WINDS...ALTHOUGH HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
R
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FRANKS