Wildfire in Hawaii, November 25, 2001

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION AND GUIDANCE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
10 AM HST SUN NOV 25 2001

SUMMARY...LARGE SCALE WEATHER FEATURES ARE COMING TOGETHER TO
PRODUCE A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR HAWAII. A FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CUT OFF INTO A KONA LOW WEST OF
KAUAI BY TUESDAY. THIS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING THE STATE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STATE.

DISCUSSION...ALL MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO CONCURRENCE IN
CUTTING OFF A KONA LOW WEST OF KAUAI ON TUESDAY FROM THE DIGGING
TROUGH APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PLACE
THE ISLANDS FIRMLY UNDER A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE 500
MB LEVEL...WITH SURFACE WIND AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BENEATH...A
CLASSIC SET-UP FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONLY
FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR. WITH
SUCH A DYNAMIC AND CHANGING SYNOPTIC PATTERN THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
LIFT AIDED BY TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT BECOMES PROBLEMATIC. WILL GO WITH
THE AVN SOLUTION IN THE NEAR TERM...WHICH BRINGS THE FIRST SLUG OF
MOISTURE UP INTO THE BIG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL
LIKELY ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT ISLAND AND MAUI...WHICH WILL BE
IN LINE FOR BIG ISLAND PLUME CONVERGENCE. DYNAMICS MAY LATER SHIFT
TO THE WESTERN ISLANDS...AS EITHER THE FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST NORTHWEST OR THE KONA LOW FORMS WEST OF KAUAI WITH A
CONVERGENCE BAND REACHING OUT TO KAUAI AND OAHU...AND SO WILL LEAVE
THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
PENDING RESOLUTION OF THE LATTER STAGES OF THIS THREATENING
SCENARIO.

WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME A FACTOR. DOPPLER WINDS OVER KAUAI ARE
SHOWING A SOLID 25 KT WITH OCCASIONAL 3O KT WINDS AT THE 2000 FT
GRADIENT LEVEL. THIS COULD TRANSLATE INTO A WIND ADVISORY LATER
TODAY FOR WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THAT ISLAND AND POSSIBLY OAHU. IT HAS
ALREADY PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
CHANNELS AND COASTAL WATERS FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL ALSO BE WATCHED FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENTS.

SURF FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...
POSSIBLY BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FEET MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO
BE ASSESSED FOR AN ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. FARRELL

.PHFO.....WARNINGS.....NONE
.         WATCHES......NONE
.         ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT
.         OUTLOOKS.....HYDROLOGIC